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View Diary: Losing House races is great practice for winning House races (218 comments)

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  •  Recruitment could have been a lot better (5+ / 0-)

    There wasn't a single marquee challenger in OH or PA. Michigan only had McDaniel. Crying "Gerrymandering" is an excuse. We'll see in a few weeks that the Gerrymandering didn't create solid red districts for every PA/OH Repub. and if the 2012 approach is used in 2014, we might as well not plan on a House Majority before 2022

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:43:00 AM PST

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    •  Nobody ran against Speaker Boehner. (6+ / 0-)

      I get it, it's a tough race and maybe impossible to win.  But nobody even tried.  No one.  There was a circle for Boehner or a circle for write-in.

      I'm totally with you.  We need to run someone in every race.  I think it also plays into the fifty state strategy.

      •  Its hard to find someone willing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, redrelic17

        to throw away the filing fees for a vanity run where they will get crushed.

        •  The whole point of this article is (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome, peregrine kate

          that the Democratic party and specifically candidates better get used to the long-view.

          Run a guaranteed lose in '14 against Boehner... you get lucky or if bone-head makes a big flopping mistake, you knock off the Speaker.

          Assuming the likely case (Boehner's challenger loses), this then sets the stage for '16 - a presidential election, where if we run someone like Warren, Clinton with massive name rec and an Obama-class GOTV campaign, we wash out the Repugs, and Boehner along with them.

          50 state solution.  Full-court press.  All hands on deck.  We need to challenge all seats or liberal ideals and America's future will be turned back.

          --
          Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

          by sacrelicious on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:45:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  not even talking about that (4+ / 0-)

        I'm guessing that when the results by CD come in, we're gonna wonder why a stronger candidate didn't run against any of the SEPA Republicans, or why every Ohio Republican except for Renacci and Johnson basically got a free pass to the general election.

        The approach is essentially one of writing off every district/area where Obama didn't win a majority. And it's a route to a near-permanent minority status. The reality is that Ds can't win a House majority without making a push to win seats where the top of the ticket is competitive but not always victorious.

        Republicans drew the maps in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2002, and somehow Democrats were able to actually win seats there given enough of an effort.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:03:20 AM PST

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        •  I don't get your position (8+ / 0-)

          You saying that "crying gerrymandering is an excuse." That's absurdly strident. Yes, I'm sure you'll find a few unconsted districts where the Obama numbers look halfway decent. But gerrymandering was a reason, and a darn good one, that we had a hard time recruiting. You can't stick your head in the sand about that and brush it off as a mere whiny "excuse."

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:48:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  "Uncontested" (sp) (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, vcmvo2

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:49:16 PM PST

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          •  how are we going to define halfway decent (0+ / 0-)

            i'm gonna guess there'll be a variety of districts where his percentage was over 45%.. and several will be the "gerrymandered" districts, and there'll be places where the people who turned down a shot in 2012 might reconsider. Guarantee it'll be more than a few.

            But we can't wait to get 218+ districts that go our way in the Presidential election. That won't happen unless the candidate wins big. You have to drop down into districts that are halfway decent to have a chance.

            There certainly was a chance on paper to do far better than 201 in 2012. But the failures of candidate recruiting made it near impossible to have a serious shot at 218.

            Just throwing up your hands and saying "gerrymandering" is an excuse. Did the Republicans throw up their hands and quit in similar situations?

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:46:26 PM PST

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            •  No, and neither did the Democrats (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              vcmvo2

              You seem to have forgotten that the Republicans were in the minority in the House for decades. There are various things that go into not flipping the House, and gerrymandering was the main factor this time.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:25:41 PM PST

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              •  We'll see where O's percentage is in his 217th and (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                peregrine kate

                218th best seats. Should be interesting to see how high it is in those seats.

                2014 is gonna have seats on all levels that get moved up the list because they didn't either see what'd happen to the district under the new lines (the estimates may not be precise in some places) or because they didn't get a strong candidate in the area.

                So at least candidate recruitment will be a bit more concise since they'll have actual data to show people in some areas.

                Getting 17 seats over the next few cycles is going to be difficult, but it's more difficult if the candidates don't get found for the winnable races. That's part of how it took 12 years for Dems to take back Congress after 1994. And this situation where the Ds didn't get the House is a lot like 1996 where another popular president couldn't put his party back in control of the House.

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:07:02 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Someone who does not even know (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              alswearingen, MichaelNY, IM

              what fine challengers we had in a bunch of gerrymandered Republican districts but thinks we should have squandered resources running someone in Boehner's district is not someone qualified to tell Ohio Democrats what to do.

              Jon Husted is a dick.

              by anastasia p on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:31:28 PM PST

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              •  didn't advocate running putting resources there (0+ / 0-)

                as for name-on-ballot candidates, not sure how that'd really hurt. Not sure on the requirements of petitioning in Ohio and such.

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:38:06 PM PST

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          •  this is curious (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The first thing I thought looking at the list is "How many of these Dens were assisted by redistricting this year.  Certainly the IL candidates were and I'm guessing the CA ones were too.

            It was a factor this year - no doubt.

            I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

            by Satya1 on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 03:31:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Incredibly ignorant of this year's Ohio races. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, IM, mightymouse

          Only Renacci and Johnson "basically got a free pass"? I imagine you must have spent the last year on another continent where news of Ohio never reaches. The three highest profile and most vigorous challenges in Ohio were to Bob "Who?" Latta (Angela Zimmann), Mike "Who?" Turner (Sharen Neuhardt) and Teabaggin' Bob Gibbs (Joyce Healy-Abrams). These women raised money, hired staff, appeared at events and met voters every day, did numerous debates and townhalls, and just busted their asses.

          Yes, Republicans drew the Ohio maps in 2002 and somehow, they found a way to make them even WORSE this year. But these candidates, along with Betty Sutton (who ran against Jim Renacci) worked tirelessly. Please don't insult them like this.

          Jon Husted is a dick.

          by anastasia p on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:30:07 PM PST

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          •  Ok (0+ / 0-)

            OH5: Obama won 46% there in 2008
            Zimmann won 39%

            OH7: Obama won 47% there in 2008
            Healy-Abrams won 43%

            OH10: Obama won 49% there in 2008
            Neuhardt won 37%

            In districts where the President probably won at least 45%, and districts that should be competitive, the Republicans won by 15%+ in two of the three districts.

            That's essentially a free pass. Nice that the challengers got into 6 digits of spending. But the districts aren't that red and they all ran obviously behind the President in 2012.

            The guy who ran against Chabot and raised no money won 37%.

            The guy who ran against Stivers and spent under $100K won 38%

            What happened in districts like those 5 is a failure of candidate recruitment more than anything else.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:48:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Bullshit. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              An attitude like this — calling these hardworking women who raised more money and campaigned harder than any challenger these incumbents have had "failures" — pretty much ensures that no one will ever be good enough to run in YOUR book. You take a case like Mike "who?" Turner — a bland incumbent that no one really knows much about and who rarely interfaces with the public, which kind of describes all of these guys – and no one has a reason to vote against them. Meanwhile, their position assures they will always have more money than ANY challenger. There is no magic celebrity who will be able to – on first attempt — outperform a high-profile president who as you note lost all three of those districts. So even if they were able to perform equal to him — an incredibly high bar for two first-time candidate and one second-time candidate running in a mostly new district — they STILL would have lost.

              I think the Democrats did an amazing job of candidate recruitment — just as they did when Justin Coussoule ran against Boehner — but you clearly know little about these districts other than just some numbers you pulled from somewhere. if you can think of some wonderful, amazing, incredible, magical candidates who could have run in these districts and outperformed the president with campaigns more vigorous and well-funded than these great women, i would like to know who they are.

              Jon Husted is a dick.

              by anastasia p on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 03:28:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  if Mike Turner is so bland (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, jncca

                why did he run so far ahead of Romney while the strong campaigning great recruit Neuhardt ran so far behind Obama?

                If you're gonna talk up candidates who didn't break 40% as great recruits who ran strong campaigns, they better be running near or ahead of the top of the ticket, not around 5% to 8% behind (estimated) a Presidential candidate who was in the mid to high 40s.

                Great recruits who run strong campaigns don't run behind the top of the ticket to such a huge extent.

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 04:21:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  It's a bit ridiculous (0+ / 0-)

        Republicans ran a candidate in Pelosi's district.  Why the hell didn't we run someone in Boehner's?

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:22:42 PM PST

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      •  Boehner isn't a good target (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for limited resources. We had an excellent challenger in 2010 who lost by a larger margin than previous challengers who raised no money and did no campaigning, both of which Justin Coussoule did vigorously. Sometimes you have to look at better deployment of energy and resources. At the other end of the state, my congresswoman had no GOP challenger which also would have been futile.

        Jon Husted is a dick.

        by anastasia p on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:25:49 PM PST

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      •  Boehner's district matches his philosophy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

         

        Ohio 8th District
         Most of the 8th District is rural and small town in western Ohio bordering Indiana. Larger cities include: Middletown, Huber Heights, Troy, Piqua, Hamilton, and Fairfield. The district is rural conservative and largely white.
        Continue reading at NowPublic.com: Let’s visit Minority Leader John Boehner’s district | NowPublic News Coverage http://www.nowpublic.com/...
        The district includes several rural and suburban areas near Cincinnati and Dayton, and a small portion of Dayton itself.
        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        We (Kossacks and Democrats) need to improve our skills and attitudes if we are going to reach (and convert) conservative voters in Boehner's district.

        Look at OH-8 voting record at bottom of this page and think about how much time and money it will take to defeat Boehner:
        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        I detest Boehner for his lobbyist connections and would love to see him go down ...if not in an election...than in a scandal of his own making.

        I would happily join any effort to make Boehner's 1% and anti-worker, anti-woman activities known to a wider audience.

    •  McDowell (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JBraden

      And, as much as I wanted him to win and thought he had it, if he was was considered a marquee challenger by some hear, he was a pretty sh%tty one to put on a marquee.

      For Michigan, I want to see Stupak brought back in the 1st, because it would be a walk, and Byrum brought back in the 8th, because she'd at least make it competitive.  I still have no idea who could run in MI-11 and MI-7, but both of those are highly competitive with a legitimate candidate.

    •  McDowell you mean, in MI-01? (0+ / 0-)

      But yes, I take your point. 50-state, 435-district strategy.

      I'm seeking to organize DKos members in SE Michigan--roughly, from the Ohio line at Lake Erie NE to Port Huron, W to Flint and back S from there. If you'd like to join our new group, Motor City Kossacks (working title), please Kosmail me.

      by peregrine kate on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:00:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I got most of those letters correct (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, peregrine kate

        I typed it on an iPod touch, so I had an excuse for odd messups. But I can't blame autocorrect there.

        But yeah, the wider the playing field, the better. Not guaranteeing wins everywhere. But there's some things in the redder states that can occur that'll increase our vote share in the next few decades. Hispanic populations in Republican states. Etc.

        And next time around, I hope they can find someone else from the upper peninsula to face Benishek. I'd say "find a guy from Traverse City" but then I'd imagine that guy's gains on the hand wouldn't make up for the losses in the Upper Peninsula.

        There might be some people who'll be available in 2014 who'd make for strong contenders in Michigan.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 01:10:34 AM PST

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        •  Maybe someone from Alpena to split the diff? (0+ / 0-)

          I'm mostly joking; I have no real knowledge of the political nuances up there.
          However, I do think it's time to start looking for candidates now. Unfortunately, I have little confidence in the MDP's recruiting and developing capacities.

          I'm seeking to organize DKos members in SE Michigan--roughly, from the Ohio line at Lake Erie NE to Port Huron, W to Flint and back S from there. If you'd like to join our new group, Motor City Kossacks (working title), please Kosmail me.

          by peregrine kate on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 07:44:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  hope there's a good candidate (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, JBraden

            who lives on the bridge, therefore he can please both sides of the district.

            Granted, he might have resource problems if he lives on the bridge. But still.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:49:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  COMPLETELY wrong about Ohio (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, mightymouse

      I don't know exactly what you mean by "marquee" challenger, but at very least, Betty Sutton fit the bill. And Democrats recruited excellent candidates in three other districts that appeared to be at least somewhat more marginally winnable than before. Joyce Healy Abrams, Angela Zimmann and Sharen Neuhardt were great recruits who ran strong campaigns. But yes, gerrymandering DID create solid red districts for virtually every Ohio Republican, with one exception: 14. And there the Democrats made a miscalculation that anyone would have made. The district WAS unwinnable by a challenger as long as the inexplicably popular Steve LaTourette was in office. So the Republican mapmakers didn't bother to protect it. No one could have known this would be the year that LaTourette would finally bail and do so very late in the cycle, long after Democrats has decided not to bother to field a real candidate in a hopeless race when they had those other districts to focus on — and their candidate was perennial loser Dale Blanchard.

      But I was at a meeting Thursday here in Cleveland, and there were people there from this district (which abuts Cleveland) talking about potential recruits for 2014. This district could be a pickup opportunity with the right candidate (anyone but Blanchard, who will run again but isn't a problem because when there are other Democratic primary candidates he always loses and usually finishes last).

      Jon Husted is a dick.

      by anastasia p on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 02:24:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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