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View Diary: Boehner steps into the abyss (109 comments)

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  •  Boehner's not crazy. This kind of worked for him (9+ / 0-)

    before, in 2011.  The real test here is not so much Boehner, but whether Obama is willing to do what it takes to break the hostage-taking dynamic.  And that is to call Boehner's bluff.  I agree that the longer Boehner holds out, the worse the consequences will be for the republicans, but Boehner has experience, and therefore, reason, to believe that Obama may cave.

    Do you really think Geithner won't advise Obama to cave if there is a stock sell-off?

    Hey, Republicans, the whole world is watching.

    by TAH from SLC on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:17:35 PM PST

    •  Boehner's handicap is having no ideas (21+ / 0-)

      I agree with your analysis, and indeed, experience would indicate to Boehner that all he has to do is keep saying "no," and let the White House bargain against itself. He famously said he got 98% of what he wanted last time around, so why mess with a winning strategy?

      The problem, of course, is if the other side adopts a different strategy. I roomed with a guy many years ago who played offensive line on his high school football team. They started a drive from inside their own 5 yard line. Hoping to get a little maneuvering room, the quarterback called their basic dive play, Knock Right. Running back takes the ball and runs right. Nothing fancy, but should be good for a couple of yards.

      Well, it went for six or seven yards. Encouraged, the quarterback called for Knock Right again. First down! They ran Knock Right a dozen times or more, right down the field for a touchdown. They couldn't believe the defense wasn't adjusting, and apparently the defense couldn't believe they were running the exact same play over and over.

      Well, Mr. Boehner, the defense has adjusted, and they're ready for Knock Right. Do you have any other plays in your playbook, or are you ready at long last to get back to the job of governing?

    •  The good news is, Obama is in a stronger position (12+ / 0-)

      now than he was then. Back then, he couldn't have the economic fallout from failure to raise the debt ceiling happen on his watch a year before he was up for re-election. Now he has a lot more leverage, since he doesn't have to run again and polls show people would blame Republicans if they go over the cliff. Sure, the president still doesn't want the economic consequences of sequester on his watch, but he doesn't have a gun to his head now like he did back then.

      •  Yup! And ge KNOWS the difference (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        avsp

        between 2008 and 2012.

        With the tax-hiking proposal President Barack Obama sent to Congress on Thursday, it seems the president is finally heeding a lesson he learned in the first month of his first term. [...]
        Obama [...] sought GOP input from the beginning of the stimulus bill's creation. And he said the Republicans really liked all the nice tax cuts the White House had included in its initial framework.
        "I suppose what I could have done is started off with no tax cuts, knowing that I was going to want some, and then let them take credit for all of them," Obama said. "And maybe that's the lesson I learned."
        HuffPo

        Notice the presidents proposal only calls for $400B in spending cuts while calling for $1.6T in tax increases?

        Take Back Our Country? We Built That? HaHaHa! Barack Obama: 332; Mitt Romney: 206. HaHaHa!

        by ChiTownDenny on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:53:00 PM PST

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      •  Also...he's already DONE a bunch of legislation (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DJDan, rlochow

        his primary need it to just protect the gains he already has.

        ACA, DADT, not going backward on DOMA or START etc

        In 2009-2010, he was trying to make hay with his congressional majorities, which, while substantial, were nothing like what LBJ or FDR had, while the opposition was in complete lockstep.

        He needed a little R support and to hold his whole caucus together, which, remember, wasn't a majority at all without a lot of Blue Dog votes in both houses.

        In 2011 he thought there was one point of agreement with the GOP where he could get some actual legislation done.   Thus the chasing of a grand bargain.   When Bohner couldn't hold his caucus together, Obama said "fuck it" and stopped trying to do deals, instead came back home to his base with some executive orders and the Gay Marriage announcement and economic populism in his stump speeches.

        Obama has no substantive legislation he can do with either the 2010 or 2012 Republican house if they remain in lockstep.   So any threats of being offended by anything he says or offers don't change him from status quo ante....which is they won't deal with him.

        So what he's gonna do, is keep setting traps in an attempt to break some votes free.  Once that has occurred once, there may be other opportunities to do it again (eg, Immigration reform).

        For now the tax expiration is his strongest card, so that is his current lever for trying to break some votes free, especially as his favored outcome requires only the House to vote for it to become law.   So that's what he's doing.

        Should we go over the cliff, I'm sure he has a bunch of other legislation waiting in the wings to harass the R congress.   While implementing Obamacare and hopefully making appointments in the senate post-filibuster-reform.

        •  Can we get DOMA repealed in the next 4 years? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The BigotBasher, DSPS owl

          I know it might be pie in the sky, but I think Republicans have realized it's no longer a winning issue for them, and there might be enough in the House who are willing to vote for it, especially those who come from states that have legalized gay marriage and have constituents who are adversely affected by DOMA. Maybe they would be motivated by their newfound desire to appear more inclusive and less extreme on social issues.

          The Senate would be tougher but if filibuster reform happens it might be a possibility. At the very least, it would be good to reopen the debate on the issue, even if it doesn't end up getting repealed right away.

    •  I was thinking the same thing. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      avsp, TAH from SLC, PorridgeGun

      His last hostage taking was a grand success in his view. He got 98% of what he wanted.  The only real question here is, do the Democrats "cave" again this time?

      Fuck me! He made it. Will Scarlet

      by dagolfnut on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:39:50 PM PST

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      •  Except the hostage taking was a failure (0+ / 0-)

        Because he couldn't get his own guys to vote for that 98%.  They held out for the last 2% and got nothing for all their efforts except a budget that analysis showed later  was pretty much a zero cut budget (all "cuts" coming out of funds that hadn't been spent in prior periods)...Obama got them on the numbers there even though the budget was theoretically a Hostage Taking victory..

        The 98% of what B wants ship has sailed.   The opportunity will never come again with this president.

    •  Well, except that if Obama does nothing (3+ / 0-)

      all the tax cuts will expire at the end of the year. Two days after the new congress comes in, the Senate passes a bill restoring the middle class tax cuts, and then sits backs and watches while the Republicans in a House argue about voting against a tax cut for 98% of Americans so they can restore the tax cuts for the wealthy (which won't pass the Senate and will be vetoed by Obama).
      See why Obama holds all the cards?

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:04:50 PM PST

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    •  So tell B it's ain't gonna fly this time. And tell (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The BigotBasher

      O that he should stick to his guns.

      www. speaker.gov/contact

      www.whitehouse.gov

      Freedom has two enemies: Those who want to control everyone around them...and those who feel no need to control themselves.

      by Sirenus on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:08:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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