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View Diary: Ga. and Az. Must be Considered Swing States in 2016 (30 comments)

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  •  Swing state status... (1+ / 0-)
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    is not, to the best of my knowledge, based on the actual vote results from previous elections, but based on polls showing whether it is “up in the air,” in terms of a realistic possibility that either candidate could win it.

    So, therefore, just because a state was considered a “swing state” this year, doesn't necessarily make that the case next time. And just because the race was closer in certain states than expected in 2012, doesn't mean that that will be a swing state in 2016.

    Whether Georgia and Arizona are swing states in 2016 will not be determined based on anything anyone WANTS to be the case now or in 2016, but, rather, on what the polls show in 2016. If polls show that both the Democratic and Republican candidates for president have a realistic chance of winning them, they will become swing states. Because, well...that's what a swing state is (as could “swing” either way.)

    •  But that's sort of my point (3+ / 0-)

      Were it not for some GOP-leaning pollsters (and some outright hacks), Michigan and Minnesota would never have been considered close. No closer than Georgia or Arizona, neither of which got pulled into the conversation, and didn't receive near the polling (if I recall correctly) that the Great Lakes states did. It's another black eye on the supposed objectivity of the media when we have another set of metrics that show, unflinchingly, that they were not.

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