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View Diary: Nate Silver: POLITICO Covers Politics Like Sports, ‘But Not In An Intelligent Way’ (43 comments)

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  •  Weighted averaging... (3+ / 0-)
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    Grubdnikk, mike101, lostboyjim

    I may be wrong, but it's my understanding that Nate's process isn't just a simple add-em-up and average 'em, but rather takes the history of a pollster's accuracy into account. That's where the knowledge and discernment comes in. He knows to "value" certain types of polls over others, due to their past performance as well as their methodology, size, and other aspects. And there are other factors besides polls in his model--the economy, etc.

    Most people don't know how to think probabilistically, but we can learn, with practice.

    I love it that Obama's channeling Harry Truman: "I don't give 'em hell; I just tell the truth and they think it's hell!"

    by sillia on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 08:22:09 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

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