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View Diary: Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Missouri will resign from Congress in February (88 comments)

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  •  quick numbers (2+ / 0-)
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    dufffbeer, ArkDem14

    there's only one county split in the district (Jefferson County) and in Jefferson County, 17 precincts are completely in the 8th and 8 precincts are split between the 3rd and 8th. So figuring out the general mood of the district isn't hard, although precise numbers may be hard to figure out.

    For Senate: Akin won by under 5000 votes, 48-46.
    For Governor: Spence won by under 4000 votes, 49-48
    For Secretary of State: Schoeller won 57-39 (the closest statewide election)

    As for the split precincts, it looks like they have 5000 votes in the 8th, so not enough to flip the district for Senate or Governor.

    District split by TV market:
    Cape Girardeau: 45% of voters
    St. Louis: 27% of voters
    Springfield: 26% of voters
    Memphis: Only Pemiscot County (6000 votes)

    Akin won Girardeau TV 51-44. Spence won it 51-46.5.
    Claire won the STL TV part of the district 53-40. Nixon won it 55-42.
    Akin won Springfield TV 50-42. Spence won it 54-43.

    I'd imagine that the race would be front and center on Girardeau TV. In the background on St. Louis TV. And not particularly mentioned in Springfield.

    There's two areas where Ds go very well, relatively. 4 Bootheel counties (which typically went Emerson easily as Bill and JoAnn had ties downthere) and a line of counties including Jefferson, Ste. Genevieve, St. Francois, Washington, Iron and Reynolds counties.

    The first enclave is not known for high voter turnout. The second gets their TV from St. Louis

    The Special Election Chaos Theory should be remembered here. But it's not like there'll be anything else to cover in March/April 2013, right?

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:05:04 AM PST

    •  There's nothing in the Paducah, KY (0+ / 0-)

      market? I seem to recall seeing some of the clips covering the Senate race from there. Or is that too far north?

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:03:04 PM PST

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      •  going to the TV guide listings (1+ / 0-)
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        the local stations in Cape Girardeau are WSIL / KFVS / KBSI / WPSD

        So, Cape and Paducah are in the same market. Although i'd imagine the focus of news for each station differs.

        And some cities have it made for local news. Here's the local channel listings on Poplar Bluff TV (with cities of license):

        KPOB (Poplar Bluff, satellite of WSIL in Harrisburg, IL)
        KMOV (St Louis)
        WPSD (Paducah)
        KAIT (Jonesboro)
        KBSI (Cape Girardeau)
        KFVS (Cape Girardeau)

        But yes, the maximum TV range for MO8 ads is from SW MO (Springfield market) to Southern Illinois (STL/Cape markets).. covering 5 states (MO, IL, AR, KY, TN)... and more states if someone has money to burn and advertises in Memphis to hit TVs in Pemiscot County for no reason

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:21:53 PM PST

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