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View Diary: Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Missouri will resign from Congress in February (88 comments)

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  •  How about a Carnahan? (1+ / 0-)
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    JBraden

    I'm mad as hell that Russ Carnahan primaried Clay in the 1st district, but maybe he'd have a chance in this one. Didn't his old 3rd district cover Jefferson County? He's sort of political toast around here because of that lame-ass move against Clay, but maybe, if he regained a seat for the D's, he could find redemption. What do y'all think?

    Life's a dance you learn as you go; sometimes you lead, sometimes you follow.

    by gloriasb on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:11:58 AM PST

    •  yeah (0+ / 0-)

      the 8th includes the parts of the 3rd that he didn't do very well in back in 2010. It also includes Rolla, where he grew up. And parts of the area where he does have family ties

      but the D nominee is going to actually live in the district, so remove all the Carnahans you've heard of from the list. If Russ took a pass on MO2, he wouldn't then go for MO8

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:14:49 PM PST

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      •  Robin Carnahan (1+ / 0-)
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        MichaelNY

        Isn't Robin Carnahan's residence on the family farm outside Rolla? That would put her inside the district quite easily. I would suspect that her approval ratings are pretty high--she did a good job as SOS and there have been a lot of nice articles about the family recently, since, as of 2013, there will be no elected Carnahan officials in the state for the first time in a long time. I suspect she might even be able to outpoll Nixon and McCaskill, especially if she got a crappy opponent (aka-Sarah Steelman).  

        According to the official bio on her campaign website, "Today, in addition to her duties as Secretary of State, Carnahan continues to manage her family’s 900-acre farm and cattle operation near Rolla." ("About Robin" page of RobinCarnahan.com)

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:35:49 PM PST

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    •  Russ Carnahan... (0+ / 0-)

      ran for the semo seat in 1990.  Got beat pretty bad by the late Rep. Bill Emerson.  No way he wins after representing "super liberal" STL.

      •  there is overlap between old MO3 and MO8 (0+ / 0-)

        but the MO3 parts of the new MO8 voted for Ed Martin over Russ in 2010.

        The 1990 map shows off the fruits of the work done by the Emersons to siphon Dem votes in that area. Russ lost 57-43 and the four full counties* he won were won with 50-52%, and he lost multiple typically D counties in the Bootheel.

        (* - Franklin County was split at the time)

        Relying on the MO8 results to get an accurate picture of the district is not entirely accurate, but the Emersons reigned for long enough that the district became solidly Republican over their time in office.

        It's a 13 seed v. a 4 seed, at best.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:43:18 PM PST

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    •  You should be mad at Clay, not Carnahan. (8+ / 0-)

      Clay (and Cleaver) screwed Carnahan. They put themselves ahead of the Democratic Party during redistricting. Had they helped Nixon sustain the veto, the map would have been drawn by a judge. We may well be looking at a 233-202 Congress today instead of 234-201.

      Clay deserved the primary challenge from Carnahan and I would have voted for Russ if I lived in that district.

      22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

      by liberal intellectual on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:38:59 PM PST

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      •  there's no guarantee that a court map would be 5-3 (0+ / 0-)

        Judging by the court maps i've seen for the state legislature, which have pretty much secluded Dems to a small portion of the overall districts.

        I was disappointed that the judges didn't draw the map. But most of the differences between a judge map and the passed map are in line drawing. The Judges would have probably created a safe MO5 of all Jackson County and Democratic parts of Clay County, while moving Lafayette/Saline/Ray into MO6 or keeping them in MO4.

        The matter of how the judges would have drawn the STL area districts is a great hypothetical. The requirements for drawing MO1 are still unclear to me. I don't think MO1 was majority-African American in 2002 (it was around 47-48%). If there's no majority, I don't think there's a legal problem with reducing that percentage a bit.

        But we had a State Senate map drawn by judges get invalidated because the Judges didn't know the Missouri Constitutional provisions. So I could see them thinking they had to pack MO1 because of VRA. Or thinking that they had to put all of STL City in MO1, which pairs Russ and Lacy, and creates a MO2 that could be a tossup depending on the border between MO1 and MO2 in STL County.

        Russ did decide to not run TV, but he did mail talking mailers. Then he lost 2-1, instead of taking a chance with MO2. His mistake.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:04:40 PM PST

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