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View Diary: Drawing a Democratic Florida (23 comments)

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  •  Nice map overall, mine is very similar except (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, Englishlefty

    I don't think your 25th district is VRA compliant at all.  It looks like you packed one monstrously Cuban district while the other districts have a much larger share of their Hispanic population from non-cubans and they're both lower in overall Hispanic share.

    Here's what my map does while making both the Dem seats stronger and more hispanic:
    Photobucket

    The 18th/27th (Yellow-Ros-Lehtinen) is at 60.1% Obama 2008 and would have been like D+10 at the very least this year.  It's 70.1% VAP Hispanic.
    The 21st/26th (Maroon-Garcia) is 54% Obama and would have been something like D+7 or D+8 this year.  It's 72.4% Hispanic.
    The 25th (PaleVioletRed-Either Rivera or Diaz-Balart) is the vote sink at 38.6% Obama but just 73.4% Hispanic.

    Other than that major difference, mine is essentially the same except I got Murphy's seat 2.5% more Dem and made John Mica's seat more Dem by weakening Demings and Grayson who don't need the help.  All in all drawing a 16-11 map is very doable.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sun Dec 09, 2012 at 03:41:18 PM PST

    •  What are your thoughts on the Tampa Bay area? (0+ / 0-)

      Is trying to move the 12th closer to the tossup range a good idea, or playing with fire?

      •  I don't think it's playing with fire, but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Englishlefty

        there's just no way to make it really a winnable district.  I drew one version where I got it up to 52.8% Obama or so, which is R+1 by 2008, but it's a district where he overperforms generic local D and Bilirakis is a very strong incumbent for that district and I highly doubt he retires this decade.  It also prevents you from really putting the hammer down on Young, but I think he'd have lost anything over D+5 this year so it's really just a matter of preference.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sun Dec 09, 2012 at 04:04:21 PM PST

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