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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/11 (430 comments)

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  •  Republicans in D+ districts (5+ / 0-)

    In the end there could possibly be four more:

    CA-21
    IL-13
    NJ-02
    NY-19

    I guess all of them will be around D+0 or D+1.

    The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

    by germanliberal on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 08:04:33 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  IDK (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      CA-21 was R+0 in 2008 so Obama would have to exceed his national margin slightly in that district to get it to D+0.

      IL-13 is probably a slam dunk. Obama would have to actually lose the district for it to have an R+ PVI this time (it was D+2 in 2008 numbers alone).

      NJ-2 could go either way. It was D+0 in 2008, so if Obama slipped just slightly more there than nationwide it'll be R+0 or R+1.

      NY-19 is the exact same as NJ-2.

      I'd put more money on NY-19 going R+ because it elected a non-entrenched Republican incumbent by a not insignificant amount at the same time.

      You're right though, they're all possibilities.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 08:31:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've seen comments on Twitter... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, jncca, MichaelNY

        That Obama lost IL-13 narrowly - by a few thousand votes.  Which isn't surprising considering he won IL-12 by only a few thousand votes, and IL-12 was fractionally more Democratic in 2008.  

        As to NJ-02, check out the county maps on the NYT website.  Obama outperformed his absolute 2008 numbers in most of South Jersey.  He only lost ground in Gloucester, Salem, and Cape May.  In each of them the fall was significantly less than his national swing of -1.85% or so.  NJ-02 probably had Obama do slightly better in 2008 than 2012.  I'm guessing in 2012 numbers alone he's around D+2, and the new PVI for the seat will most likely be D+1

        NY-19 is different.  Ulster County is the only county entirely within the district where Obama improved his absolute percentage.  Elsewhere he fell, but mostly by less than his national numbers dropped.  I'd expect D+1 as his 2012 number, which could round the composite PVI up to D+1 or down to EVEN, depending upon what fraction of a percent it was.  

        CA-21 is a massively Latino district.  IIRC, it's actually majority Latino even by CVAP (although turnout was obviously abysmal).  Still, it would be a shock for Obama not to have won such a district.  

        (keep in mind these are preliminary numbers -- NYT hasn't updated its vote totals since the 29th, so they've probably shifted a bit to the left).  

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