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View Diary: The cost of gerrymandering (255 comments)

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  •  What you saw was the norm. (6+ / 0-)

    Presidential election years always outdraw off years. And this has always (well, since 1994, at least) benefited the Republicans.

    "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

    by bryduck on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 12:13:11 PM PST

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    •  It was not "the norm" in Virginia's 2009 election. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bryduck

      It was worse. To show another claiming it was just the normal off year fall off I crunched some numbers. An extract (links to SBE data in the linked reply):

      2005    1025942    Kaine
      2006    1175606    Webb
      2008    1959532    Obama
      2009    818950    Deeds
      2010    911116    Democrats for Congress

      If my quick little spreadsheet is right that puts the total Democratic vote for the Governor that would determine majority status on ever election board in the state and the coattails for every statehouse race for reapportionment for the next decade at 359,279.2 votes under the average of all those years and 1,140,582 under Obama's vote the previous year.

      So damn right too many people celebrated victory in 2008 and did not stand and hold that victory fully in Virginia's redistricting critical 2009 statewide/legislative race.

      Yeah, as so many here like to say now, elections do have consequences.

      Cuccinelli, not fondly known as the Cooch, or Kook, positioned for the governor's race next year. A TP/GOP sweep of state offices and both houses of the legislature. The "retirement" of some damn fine Democrats even here in NOVA. A lot of good safe Republican CDs with the blues well concentrated in tight little packs.

      The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

      by pelagicray on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 07:40:32 PM PST

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      •  How does this invalidate my point? (0+ / 0-)

        From your table there, I see the highest total was for the 2008 election year, as was my main point. All the others--non-Presidential years--are lower. What you don't show (which might invalidate my other claim about how Rs always benefit) are the votes for the R candidates. Did they do better in off years, percentage-wise?
        In Virginia, to be sure, 2009 was a worse-than-usual off year--seemingly, since we don't have the R vote totals. The more interesting total to me, though, is 2010, which indeed shows a lower total than 2006, the only other comparable year here. But couldn't that be attributed to the lack of a riveting Senatorial race that year also?

        "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

        by bryduck on Wed Dec 12, 2012 at 03:44:36 PM PST

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      •  Addendum: forgive my laziness; I did not do (0+ / 0-)

        all the click-throughs or calculations. I am not challenging your analysis of Virginia in your prior post.
        I stand by my original and simple point, though. Off years are simply not as well-attended as Pres. years. Is it possible we under-under-performed in 2010? Sure. But the reality is that we have to expect under-performing from our constituents, and as I believe you note in your prior post, do something to counteract it.

        "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

        by bryduck on Wed Dec 12, 2012 at 03:50:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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