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View Diary: The cost of gerrymandering (255 comments)

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  •  But note that 2020 is a presidential election year (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy, bear83, Justin93

    The Repubs may have benefited from a low turn out in 2010, but 2020 is a presidential election year, so our turn out should be  high enough to give us a chance at taking governorships & other critical state offices.

    "What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them." -- Pres. Obama (1/20/2009)

    by zizi on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 05:02:20 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Wrong. (0+ / 0-)

      Most governorships are now elected in off years. We may have a shot to win some legislative seats in '20, but it will be hard due to the current gerrymanders. Given that we will have so many states with republican legislatures, we will have to win back a lot of governorships in 2018 in order to force neutral, compromise maps after 2020.

      Unless we figure out how to create heavy turnout for a mid-term election, absent an unpopular war, that will be a tall order. Republican governance is likely to be with us at all but the presidential and (sometimes at the) senate level for most or all of the rest of my life.

      Steep price being paid for all the people who stayed home in 2010.

      •  The GOP is making themselves toxic though.. (0+ / 0-)

        They keep getting more and more extreme, to the point where even gerrymandering may not be enough to keep them in office.  In fact, gerrymandered districts actually contribute to this extremism.  

        That plus demographic changes suggests to me we have a shot of retaking the House long before 2020.  A lot of the gerrymandering could turn out to be a dummymander by the end of the decade.  

        What I think happens is we take back small majorities by the latter half of the decade.  Then in 2020 redistricting removes a lot of the built in Republican advantage and they go to being a small minority for at least a decade.  

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