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View Diary: The GOP's lose-lose dilemma on immigration (107 comments)

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  •  According to this- for just Mexican vote (0+ / 0-)

    No. He only got 35 percent.

    There's a lot of data out there. What's interesting int his is that the data underscores that the numbers remain about the same.

    The lowest point was Dole in the modern era.

    But what's clear is that a large percentage went to independent candidates (which is danger for the Democratic party). That they are willing to vote a third party, especially given their left leaning ideological bent.

    eg favor socialism more, favor big government more etc

    The GOp isn't the only party facing changes.

    In terms of historic numbers, while Obama's numbers are impressive, they aren't the highest percentage ever received.

    That goes to LBJ  who is theorized to have gotten 90 percent of the Latino vote.

    Also Humpert Humphrey got 87 percent.

    Obama's number reflects Dukais's numbers- the later got 70 percent.

    The history tends to bring into question whether Obama has really done anything unique other than maintain and already strong long term historic tie with a growing demographic

    The main different historically is that the latino percentages only have started to matter with demographic shifts in the composition of the voters rather than just percentages voting Democratics.

    I have thought to write about this, but decided against it, because the reality is that people here are Democrats, and don't much seem interested in a more complicated picture

    10 percent in 1997 went to independents.

    If Democrats fail to move left as the demographic shifts occurs, the question I would be raising is not just whether the GOP faces a challenge, but whether the Democratic Party does as well?

    I don't have answer to that question, but I also know raising that here would bring out the true believers who think only i n terms of partisans scales of Democratic v REpublicans rather than what may be a more complicated future as what is likely tob e an ideological reallignment will shift away from both parties.

    That's an issue that right now the whole Grand Bargain is trying to get ahead of.

    They won't be able to pull this shit so easily even 4 years form now, much less 10. The demographics in questions- make that clear. I suppose they c ould somehow do so, but the way they have won over such nw demographics inthe past is to buy th em off through government action, which is self defeating of the goal of trying to cut government benefits. Again, not sure that's a conversation for here.

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