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View Diary: Best Senate predictions of 2012 (60 comments)

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  •  And by the way: (3+ / 0-)

    It is also highly valuable that Kos proofs that Silver's and Wang's models are totally overengineered and unneccessary.

    All their nerdy statistics didn't lead to better results than the simple polling averages of HuffPo or TPM.

    This clearly shows that it is useless to apply any statistical model at all. Just look at the polling average and you know exactly where a race stands.

    The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

    by germanliberal on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 11:54:26 PM PST

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    •  Any fool can call the race a week in advance (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ginger1, Matt Z

      Nate was giving Obama greater than 60% odds six months out.

      Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

      by blue aardvark on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 06:36:14 AM PST

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      •  This doesn't proof anything (0+ / 0-)

        You will knever know that the 60% odds six months out were true

        My personal model (aka gut feeling) already showed me in 2011 that Obama had a 90% reelection chance. Because after Perry had his "Oops" moment it was clear that there was no dangereous opponent in the race.

        So I'm 50% better than Nate.

        The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

        by germanliberal on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:39:35 AM PST

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    •  You realize that statistical analysis is part of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      holeworm

      how pure poll aggregators can make educated guesses as to which polls they should even bother including in the first place, right?

      •  Its just a questien of efficiency (0+ / 0-)

        My point is that Huffpo and TPM proofed that a very simple average model is obviously sufficient to forecast election results right.

        Therefore the highly sophisticated models of Silver and Wang are unnecessary overengineering because they didn't lead to significantly better results.

        If two legs are enough to walk why would someone need a third leg?

        The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

        by germanliberal on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:30:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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