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View Diary: Multiple news reports: John Kerry to State (344 comments)

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  •  "Best case scenario" is 51-49? Please. (0+ / 0-)

    What are these "guaranteed losses" you speak of? Please inform me. Because otherwise, you are full of it.

    There are several tough races, true, but there are no "guaranteed losses." And you have no idea how much damage the GOP will do to themselves with the teabagger primary challenges.

    •  Guaranteed losses (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pengiep, bryduck, SouthernLiberalinMD

      Landrieu and Hagan are gone. Begich and Pryor in real trouble.

      Look, if you're watching a chess game and someone gives away a pawn for no reason, it's not defeatism to say "That was a stupid, unforced error." Doesn't mean that person is definitely going to lose. Just means it makes it harder than it should be to win.

      matthewborgard.com ~ @MatthewBorgard

      by zegota on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:04:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, no, no and no. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, birdboy2000

        Landrieu and Hagen are certainly not "gone." They will have tough challenges, yes, but they are certainly not "gone." Neither are Begich and Pryor.

        I seem to remember that McCaskill, Tester and the open seat in ND were "gone" and yet we won all of those.

        You have a defeatist attitude. You're already surrendering seats. That is defeatist. That not realism.

      •  You're joking, right? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IndianaProgressive

        Landrieu, Begich, and Pryor all have high approval ratings and surnames that are electoral gold in their respective states.  They're not unbeatable, but they all go into this cycle as favorites.

        As for Hagan, she's only moderately well-received but there really isn't a bench to go up against her.  Plus, she's great on the campaign trail.  PPP just released a poll showing her beating every candidate they put up against her.  I'm not an expert on NC politics, but as far as I can tell, the only Republican who would pose a serious threat to her is Pat McCrory, and he was just elected governor.

        •  Thank you. I pointed out that PPP polling too (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          Mark Pryor in particular I consider untouchable because of his family name. David Pryor is the most beloved politician in recent Arkansas history and Mark has certainly been helped by it. (Well, maybe "untouchable" is the wrong word, but he's certainly in far better shape than most Dems in the state these days.)

        •  Well stated (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Swamp Cat, JBraden

          Do the three of them have tough races in tough states?  Of course.   But to say some of them are "gone" two years out is just defeatism.

          Mary Landrieu is far from my favorite Democrat, but she's a tough, seasoned politian who isn't going down without a fight.  Her re-election in 2002 against all the odds should be read about in poly sci and history textbooks.

          •  Ah yes (0+ / 0-)

            Who can forget about good ol' "Operation Icing on the Cake"?

            If she can survive THAT year, surely she can survive 2014.  (She may get a major boost if recently-defeated congressional wingnut Jeff Landry turns out to be her opponent, as I suspect will be the case.)

        •  I didn't speak on Pryor b/c I don't know much (0+ / 0-)

          about that race. Landrieu--well, I don't know. This is her first Citizens United-style race; are the oil companies happy enough with her not to try and clean her clock? Or are they going to pour their nasty slimy crude dollars all over her head?

          A thousand Sharkeys are invading a thousand Shires every day across our country.--James Wells

          by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:22:36 PM PST

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      •  I think we can keep Hagan and Begich. (0+ / 0-)

        But you're totally right with your chess metaphor.

        Unless Vicki Kennedy sweeps in and takes their knight when they take our pawn.

        A thousand Sharkeys are invading a thousand Shires every day across our country.--James Wells

        by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:20:36 PM PST

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      •  More than anything else, I'm on your side (0+ / 0-)

        in this argument b/c I'm sick of any and all critical analysis of the WH being considered verboten.

        We're not here to be a cheering squad, not even for politicians we love.

        A thousand Sharkeys are invading a thousand Shires every day across our country.--James Wells

        by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:23:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  There are enough (0+ / 0-)

      that are "tough" to seriously jeopardize control of the Senate. 6 defenses in red states getting redder, and one more in NC, in which we just clobbered at all levels in a Presidential year, no less! And we only have a 6 person cushion. There may be no guaranteed losses, but you'd have to be pretty blind not to see this potential bloodbath coming. I think going 50/50 would have to be considered a win, and that leaves us with 51 or 52.

      "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

      by bryduck on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:05:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't doubt 2014 is going to be tough... (0+ / 0-)

        ...but so was this cycle. Throwing in the towel ahead of schedule is not the way to go, but that seems to be what many here are already doing.

        •  You are not listening. (0+ / 0-)

          2014 is off the charts more difficult than 2012 was, and we got lucky this time around. Yes, I guess if you assume the Tea Party will blow their party's chances in all 6 of the states in question, than maybe we hold on. That is not a realistic assessment of what we are facing and what we have to do. What evidence do you have showing Landrieu, Hagan, Begich, and Pryor (or the others) to be in good shape, let alone unassailable? The election in 2012, which was as favorable as could be for us, showed all of those states doing worse statewide for the Dems than they had been. What makes you think that will turn around in 2 years?
          Being realistic is a useful method in assessing strategies, especially "ahead of schedule."

          "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

          by bryduck on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:30:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't consider them "unsassailable" (0+ / 0-)

            But neither do I consider them dead in the water as you do. Landrieu, Begich and Pryor are all popular and have prominent family names boosting them (especially Pryor, whose father is the most popular politician in his state's recent history). And Hagan is, as I said, ahead of all challenges and is a proven campaigner (she came out of nowhere to knock off Liddy Dole in 2008).

            All I say is, there's a difference between being realistic and being defeatist. And you are being defeatist.

            •  Whatever. (0+ / 0-)

              You are being unrealistic and pie-eyed. So there. You don't know my state of mind.
              Your banking on such things like "family name" is a hallmark of people who get realllllly surprised come election day. Remember Tom Daschle? Or how about Rockefeller, for a modern equivalent, in WV? He's got just about as a prominent name as can be, yet current polls show him losing to Capito this time around.
              Mark Pryor is the only Democrat anywhere in Arkansas politics on the Federal level, as they've slowly and surely turned redder and redder to match their fellow Confederate states. Of course he can win; he has defied the odds so far. Eventually voters will forget the "Pryor" and only see the "D."
              Begich only got 48%, and had the benefit of facing off against a superannuated Ted Stevens.
              Landrieu hasn't been overwhelming anybody--52% of the vote is pretty bad for an incumbent winning %.
              Etc.
              Hey, you could be right; all I'm asking is for you to admit that we are far more in danger than we were this year.

              "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

              by bryduck on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:56:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

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