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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: If he seeks re-election, Carl Levin starts off in good shape (33 comments)

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  •  This is nonsense (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    geoneb

    I won't rehash all the arguments I've made in so many comments, but this handwringing by so many makes me bounce between annoyance and laughter.

    This reminds so much of when people were convinced Todd Akin would still win, because there were public polls right after his rhetorical scandal showing a dead heat.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 06:34:10 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Special Elections are not the same as (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RoIn

      General Elections. With the special election in just 90-120 days, Brown's head start in campaign organization, fundraising, name recognition, and positive approval numbers would be very difficult to overcome.

      Why put the seat in jeapoardy like this? There are plenty of other SoS candidates Obama could consider.

      Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

      by bear83 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:36:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He doesn't have all those things (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib

        He doesn't have a campaign organization or any fundraising.  He just lost, his campaign disbanded.  I haven't looked at his cash-on-hand post-elex but normally in a tight race you leave nothing in the bank past election day except a little bit to pay off unpaid pre-election expenses.

        So he'd be starting over just like any Democrat.

        And he's going to have a harder time raising money in a special.  He's not the incumbent anymore, he looks to donors a lot less likely to come back and win than he did to hold on as an incumbent, and he's not running against someone conspicuously hostile to Wall Street robber barons like Warren which was a big motivator for Brown's donors this past cycle.  Also, there's no critical threshhold earned by his election if he were to win...GOP would still trail 54-46, compared to his first special win when he kept Democrats below 60 by knocking off Coakley.  And of course it's a short timeframe, and Democrats will be able to keep up.

        Name recognition will even out, no advantage heading into the election.

        And Brown's approvals don't matter, or else he would've won last month.  A Democratic nominee will earn high favorables as name rec rises, as long as someone ridiculous doesn't slip through the primary.

        Brown just lost by high single-digits to a novice candidate.  That doesn't bode well for his future.

        There's a lot of speculation he'll forego the special to instead run for the open Governorship.  This Senate seat would be up for another general election in 2014, so once again Brown, even if he wins the special, would be sweating from day one another dubious prospect for holding the seat.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:34:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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