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View Diary: President Obama to nominate John Kerry for secretary of state (285 comments)

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  •  An intense Warren volunteer (6+ / 0-)

    told me he'd consider it a "personal insult" if Obama forced another special election in MA. I have talked with about 10 MA Dems, and every one was completely against this. They aren't sure that Markey or Capuano would lose, but my friends are worn out and not prepared to take on a massively-funded Brown.

    Given that the odds of losing the Senate in 2014 are high already, and that the Supreme Court depends on keeping control, this is an extraordinarily irresponsible decision.

    Armies that make decisions based on personal vanities of generals tend to lose to ones that work strategically.

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:28:15 AM PST

    •  I volunteered for her and don't it as 'insult' (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jeff Simpson, zapus, TLS66, redrelic17

      "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

      by LaurenMonica on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:38:52 AM PST

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    •  The odds of losing the Senate in 2012 were... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LaurenMonica

      oh yeah, it was already supposed to have happened!

      Much less chance in 2014.  The Repug bench is full of right wing know-nothings just like the ones they sent up in 2012. They'll make the same kinds of mistakes next time.

      By the way, I'm not in MA, but having Warren AND Obama AND Biden come up and campaign with you should help out whoever is chosen for Senate get some name recognition right quick. They just need to pick someone with fire in the belly and a nose for blood in the water that Brown will provide.

      •  odds, not certainties (0+ / 0-)

        The point is that we don't know things with certainty. There are going to be lots of wins and lots of losses. You don't take a chance on a big loss unless you need to, or there's some big potential payoff.

        Anyway, our generals Obama and Kerry fucked up. Now it's time for us to grit our teeth and fight like hell again, like soldiers everywhere.

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:29:31 AM PST

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    •  Thats me... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fenway49, aseth

      and my family

      Gave $ and time to get Warren elected and now this bitchslap

      Capuano cannot win a special election where turnout will be very low in the city

      Markey would make a great Sen but it's just not gonna happen in an off year

      Patrick could keep it close but I don't see him running

      •  don't give up (0+ / 0-)

        It's one thing to be really pissed off at the brass but quite another to say the fight is hopeless. At this point, I doubt that would be the Intrade call, though I haven't checked if the market is up yet. We should be able to win in blue MA, since we have perfectly respectable candidates and should have money. It's the volunteers and turnout that are real problems, but not impossible.

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 03:31:43 PM PST

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      •  bitchslap (0+ / 0-)

        Isn't "bitchslap" being a little extreme?

    •  To put it bluntly, Massachusetts Dems have only (0+ / 0-)

      themselves to blame for forcing special elections in situations like this in the first freaking place.  Prior to 2004, the governor had the authority to fill an open Senate seat via appointment, but Massachusetts Democrats didn't want then-Gov. Mittens to appoint a Republican to Kerry's seat if he was elected President.  Thus, we now have this mess, which has now blown up in the Dems' faces TWICE.  Talk about not thinking with long-term vision...

      •  That's because (0+ / 0-)

        there would have been a Republican appointee for four years, until Kerry's term (2002-08 expired. They could have made the appointment good only until the next Congressional election, but that's still two years.

        In 2004 the state was in its 14th consecutive year with a Republican governor. Every reason to expect more Republican governors in the future. Its senators were Kerry and Kennedy. Replacing either with a Republican for any length of time would suck. The law made sense at the time.

        Frankly, it all goes back to Coakley's non-campaign in 2010, a low point for Democrats nationally. She did a poor job, Brown did a good job in running. The 2013 problems I foresee never would have happened without Brown's 2010 win. Don't blame the legislature.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:53:16 PM PST

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        •  IINM regardless of Massachusetts law (0+ / 0-)

          There would have been a special election in 2006 due to federal law.

          At least such is my understanding.

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:28:48 PM PST

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          •  I don't believe so (0+ / 0-)

            How vacancies are filled is determined by state law. In Mass. prior to the 2004 change, the governor appointed someone to finish the term, however long it was scheduled to run. It didn't matter if an intervening federal election was held (or even two).

            Some states call for a quick special election (like Mass. now), others call for an appointment until the next Congressional election. That way the appointee gets two years max but there's no special election at an off-season since they tend to have funky results. See Brown, Scott.

            Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

            by fenway49 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:48:07 PM PST

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    •  personal (0+ / 0-)

      It's not a good idea to take political decisions "personally".  

      Someone else pointed out that the odds of losing the Senate in 2012 were also high.

      •  Russian roulette (0+ / 0-)

        Sure, your point about "personal" is right, but you need volunteers to win and they are persons.

        On your other point, that's deeply flawed reasoning. It's almost a textbook illustration of how Nate Silver says the "fish" think in poker. You just know you're on that streak.

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:00:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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