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View Diary: President Obama to nominate John Kerry for secretary of state (285 comments)

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  •  I think your view of the party is off (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mspicata, decisivemoment

    It's pretty strong. The 2010 Brown election was the only loss we've really had here in a fair number of years. Mass. resisted the 2010 tide in November. Coakley's loss I really put on Coakley.

    The big concern is, with Brown still popular (which he is) and no well-known name to oppose him, it will be hard to win a low-turnout special. Our turnout numbers are remarkably consistent; high (especially among Democrats and most especially in the highly Democratic cities) in Presidential years, less so in midterms, less so still in special elections.

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:36:51 AM PST

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    •  So how would the special be timed? (0+ / 0-)

      Knowing Minnesota as I do, a September special would be a high turnout election.  Back to school, and back to the primary.  A July special would be hopeless.  Height of fishing season.

      In Illinois, the other state I'm reasonably familiar with, the key would be to coordinate with local authority elections in April in an odd-numbered year or with the March primary in an even nunbered year.  Of course Illinois law leaves a Senate appointee in until the next general, so we only run into this situation in House elections.  Exhibit A, Jesse Jackson Jr -- and for that one they're going the April route to coordinate with the local elections.  Of course, Illinois being Illinois, nobody talked about turnout.  It was all about saving money for local governments by coordinating the election with elections they're having anyway.

      •  It looks like early summer (0+ / 0-)

        It has to be between 145 and 160 days from the vacancy. If Kerry is confirmed and resigns in January, that means June. If it goes until late January or early February, you're pushing into July.

        The last one, of course, was in January. There was snow north/west of Boston. But turnout for that one wasn't much below the normal turnout in midterm Novembers (e.g. our 2006 and 2010 governor races). I'd expect (gulp) something similar unless we can really drive up the vote something fierce.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:45:41 AM PST

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    •  Then hold the special so it coincides with (0+ / 0-)

      the midterm general election.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:57:27 AM PST

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      •  You can't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jofr, Zack from the SFV

        It has to be within 145-160 days of the vacancy. There's no midterm general until November 2014.

        If Hillary would like to stay on until May of 2014 we could do it.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:02:49 AM PST

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        •  Change the law again. (0+ / 0-)

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:09:35 AM PST

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          •  About as transparent a ploy as ever was (0+ / 0-)

            People here never would go for it.

            Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

            by fenway49 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:25:24 PM PST

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            •  I agree. I think the special election law needs (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fenway49

              to be changed - but AFTER the Kerry SE.  They should look to Hawaii's.  Appointment made by Governor, but from a list given to them by the State Party of the Senator being replaced.  

              So if there is a Repub Senator and a Dem Gov, the Mass GOP would give the Gov a list of 3-5 candidates he'd choose from.  Same for the vice versa.  I think this is the fairest way, and most cost effective.  

              But no way would I support making the change now before the Kerry SE.  That's no different than GOP in Michigan or Ohio or Pa changing electoral college from winner take all to proportional just because they can and it helps them politically.  

              The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

              by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:48:08 PM PST

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