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View Diary: The Thing About Social Security (178 comments)

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  •  I don't think anyone predicts an anemic (0+ / 0-)

    economy for the next 20 years. That's never happened in US history and we've been through much worse. And, anemic as it's been since 2008, the TF still has at least 20 good years in it. Actually, more like 20 bad years and 30 or more good years, depending on how things go.

    And we should leave it alone until the economy picks up and we have a more progressive government. As I've been saying.

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 05:23:42 PM PST

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    •  Trustees do, its there job, they have always done (0+ / 0-)

      so.

      Each year they issue a report with 4 scenarios, low, intermediate, high cost and a stochastic model.

      The legal responsibility of an actuary is to create a conservative financial projection, so what the SS Trustees do is skewed to the anemic.

      FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 07:43:44 PM PST

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      •  So anemic that there will be minimal growth (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Roger Fox

        for 20 years? When has that ever happened in US history?

        "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

        by kovie on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 07:56:45 PM PST

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        •  Never. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kovie

          A 25 yr recession, 2008 thru 2033 would be the longest downturn since the Black Plague killed off half the planet.

          Anyone who has read a SS trustees report should admit touting the 2033 date is ridiculous.

          http://www.dailykos.com/...

          FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 07:59:46 PM PST

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          •  Well, Japan's been in a decades-long economic (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Roger Fox

            stagnation. But my understanding is that its situation isn't really comparable to ours. They don't have a powerful sovereign currency like ours, don't have unlimited borrowing power or the ability to print money, they're tapped out on stimulus spending, and they're culturally very economically conservative. We don't have such limitations, and are one of the most dynamic and risk-taking societies in history. We're going to get out of this, and have a vibrant economy in less than 5 years, at most 10. We just need a bit more time, and to kill this GOP zombie that just won't die.

            "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

            by kovie on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 08:48:15 PM PST

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            •  IIRC Japan (0+ / 0-)

              is not in a liquidity trap as Krugman talks about. Which means jobs stim is the only way out.

              FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

              by Roger Fox on Mon Dec 24, 2012 at 05:54:44 PM PST

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