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View Diary: Obama returning to White House as Boehner continues vacation in Ohio (128 comments)

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  •  Here's a possible scenario (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    david78209

    Nothing happens before January 3.
    The BushTaxCuts expire, the sequester kicks in.
    Now, the GOP isn't defending existing tax rates, the cuts are gone, when the cuts for the lower 98% are proposed, the TeaBaggers refuse to vote for them. They get so p!ssed at Boner for pressuring them to vote FOR Obama's tax cuts that they vote him out as speaker, putting Cantor in his place.
    More nothing gets done, Cantor and the TeaBaggers reinforce their barricades.
    But Corporate America is feeling the pinch, with another Debt Ceiling crisis about to descend, they pressure the less rabid third of the GOP to break ranks, follow Boner in joining the Dems to pass Pelosi's bill. It would only take 20 of their 234 members to flip the chart.
    Cantor may be nominally in charge, but he will only have part (a majority, true) of his caucus, the breakaways will have tremendous leverage but only if they work with Pelosi. And tremendous campaign war chests, particularly if they get primaried.
    I look forward to the pitched battle inside the GOP.
    One wild scenario that I read here last night: Boner and Cantor split the vote for Speaker and Pelosi get's a plurality. I don't know if that's possible but if it is, it would be fantastic!

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 08:23:28 AM PST

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    •  It takes a majority to elect a Speaker (0+ / 0-)

      A plurality doesn't cut it.  

      But with an inconclusive vote, the House tries again ... and again and again.

      The horse trading would be interesting.

      We're all pretty strange one way or another; some of us just hide it better. "Normal" is a dryer setting.

      by david78209 on Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 10:11:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In a three way race? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        david78209

        Is a three way race even possible or is it specifically limited to 2 candidates? And do they have to be members of the Majority? From what I understand, they don't even have to be members of Congress.

        If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

        by CwV on Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 10:23:37 AM PST

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        •  No limit on candidates (0+ / 0-)
          As the Civil War approached, several sectional factions nominated their own candidates, often making it difficult for any candidate to attain a majority. In 1855 and again in 1859, for example, the contest for Speaker lasted for two months before the House achieved a result. Speakers tended to have very short tenures; for example, from 1839 to 1863 there were eleven Speakers, only one of whom served for more than one term. To date, James K. Polk is the only Speaker of the House later elected President of the United States.
          http://en.wikipedia.org/...

          We're all pretty strange one way or another; some of us just hide it better. "Normal" is a dryer setting.

          by david78209 on Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 12:00:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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