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View Diary: $12,000 vs 2.1 Million (23 comments)

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  •  I think so. (1+ / 0-)
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    DeminNewJ

    Boehner doesn't want to deal now because he gets voted on for his speakership on Jan 3rd.  If he tries any realistic deal before then, he stands a good chance of losing that vote.  If he gets voted back in as speaker, he can immediately turn around and put something to a vote that will actually get votes from both Dems and Republicans.

    The problem with all of the 'deal' talks is that we never really know which items are in or out until they actually are ready to vote on something and it's posted on Congressional websites.

    If the only things in the 'deal' atm are tax levels from 250k to 1 mill or whatever and a UI extension, again fine, inasmuch as that goes.  But we've got a host of other issues that need dealt with as well, and the question becomes 'Where do we still have any leverage?'  Without leverage of some sort, we're going to have to let them screw over the poor elsewhere to get anything else we want.

    And, remember, 'going over the cliff', Republicans get to pretend that they're actually only 'cutting taxes' by agreeing to any deal at all that keeps any segment of Americans from returning to Bush tax rates, instead of being branded as having voted to raise taxes if they vote before the cliff.

    It's a mixed bag for them.  A lot of people will blame them for cliffdiving, but really, most of them won't ever vote for them anyway.  But if they 'go over', they're actually at least somewhat safer from RW primary challengers who will hammer them on 'raising taxes'.  So they do have some incentive to make a deal - after.

    •  The politics (0+ / 0-)

      Frankly I care less about the politics and who gets to say what vs the 2.1 Million Americans who are about to lose unemployment benefits come Wednesday morning.

      It's a big deal IMO, and I suspect it's the key #1 reason why that danged chained CPI was on the table, and it's the only reason to give in on the 400k threshold.

      How can we get these benefits extended if we don't sign a deal tonight?

      Where is our leverage Wednesday morning after the benefits expire?

      Cheers.

      •  The problem is that the politics exist whether or (0+ / 0-)

        not we care about them, and the very people who care the most about the politics are the only people who actually get to negotiate or vote on any deal.

        The leverage after is that any deal after we go over the cliff that involves keeping any American from paying more in taxes becomes a winner for Repubs.  Whereas any deal right now that involves anyone reverting back, whether above 250k or 400k, is a political loser for them.  You may not care if they get re-elected, I may not care if they get re-elected, but they sure as shooting care, and they do not want to lose their primary to some far right nutball who will turn around and lose the general to a Democrat.

        So a deal after the cliff saves face for them, and actually gives them incentive to cut a deal, even more generous of a deal than they might be willing to go for before.

        •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

          I understand the political calculus...

          but just a few days ago folks around here were saying bye bye to the UI extension, it was a price we would have to pay to get our message through to the Republicans.

          I don't see how we get that back in if we let all the cuts expire.

          Definitely we can get a tax cut passed, but why would house R's give us the UI extension?

          Do we threaten to not sign the tax cuts unless they are included?  How do you think that will play in middle America?  My opinion is not so good...

          To me, that's very risky...take the UI extension now IMO.

          But clearly I am in the minority!

          Cheers.

          •  Well, one way or another we'll find out. (0+ / 0-)

            I've been severely underemployed for several years, and unemployed for a year now myself, but never gotten a cent of UI, so I can't say I'm going to claim to be in that 2.1 million that takes it hardest depending upon the state of UI in the deal.

            All I know is I'd love to get a job again, so I could get back to happily paying taxes again.

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