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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/2 (229 comments)

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  •  Okay... (8+ / 0-)

    I took a look at Obama's absolute percentage increase by two-party vote from 2008 to 2012.  This is not PVI, just measuring his 2008 to 2012 numbers.  By PVI, Obama did better in every single county.

    Essex: 2.78%
    Franklin:1.99%
    Clinton: 1.39%
    Jefferson: 1.35%
    Herkimer (pt) 0.65%
    Washington: 0.56%
    Hamilton: 0.47%
    Saratoga (pt) 0.26%
    St Lawrence: 0.22%
    Lewis: 0.02%
    Warren: -0.16%
    Fulton: -0.98%

    I bolded the two counties which have major SUNY schools (Canton and Potsdam are both in St Lawrence).  While both showed leftward shifts, they weren't much different from the rest of their region.  Clinton was less than neighboring Franklin and Essex, and Saint Lawrence was less than nearby Jefferson, Hamilton, or Herkimer, but more than Lewis.  

    Obama had less votes in 2012 than in 2008 in every single county, but Romney also had less votes than McCain in every single county.  In all but three counties, however (Fulton, St. Lawrence, and Warren) Obama's vote totals declined by less.  So maybe it's not so much that voters are realigning to Republicans, as it is Republicans are dying off faster, and no one is replacing them.  

    •  Brilliant work (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, David Nir

      Perhaps your last sentence explains it more than anything.  

      For every 80+ year-old white person who dies in upstate NY, the replacement is probably only 90% white and maybe 70% GOP and so on.  Whether it's from a student at a SUNY school or the dying person's "more enlightened" grandchild is irrelevant I suppose.

      It just seems that the pickup 2004 to 2008 to 2012 has seemed a little too rapid to be explained by this (in upstate NY total), as Kerry barely won it and then Obama has won it quite comfortably twice.  I guess I'm used to slower realignments.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 08:57:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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