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View Diary: How will Obama avoid another debt ceiling fight with the House GOP? (79 comments)

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  •  He has to negotiate (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, Losty, MPociask, VClib

    over the sequestration cuts (which likely could cause a economic dip or possibly a recession) and the expiration of the continuing resolution, all of which happen within a few weeks of the debt limit.  My suspicion is that they will all be rolled together into a package of cuts to replace the sequestration cuts, while authorizing raising the debt limit for some period of time and passing another continuing resolution for some period of time.  

    •  definitely possible (5+ / 0-)

      But that's pretty much the definition of negotiating to get the debt ceiling raised. If he agrees to spending and entitlement cuts to get the debt ceiling raised, the sequestration cuts delayed, and the CR renewed, that's functionally no different from spending and entitlement cuts just to get the debt ceiling raised. It's just (arguably) a better negotiation result.

      "We must all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately." - Benjamin Franklin

      by CaptUnderpants on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 09:30:36 AM PST

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      •  Obama stepped in it with that statement (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mookins, RFK Lives, MPociask
        I will not have another debate with this Congress over whether or not they should pay the bills that they've already racked up
        He failed to realize there is no budget in place.  There can be no spending - i.e. no "bills racked up" - for the rest of the year without a Continuing Resolution (as coffeetalk mentioned above).

        The GOP can simply tell him "Ok.  We won't pass the CR until you deal with the spending cuts."

        The only question is: Does the GOP have the cajones to shut everything down?  That is what will happen without a CR.  But Obama's line-in-the-sand has basically told the GOP that is their only option.

        He's not very good at these negotiations.  His bluster gets him into water way over his head.

        •  Was "GOP cojones" question rhetorical? (3+ / 0-)

          They shut govt down mid-90's (in part b/c Newt didn't like seating arrangements on AF I).  They were visibly saner (or, at least, visibly less crazy) then.    Asking whether GOP is willing to shut down a govt they despise is like asking whether Boehner has a tannning bed.

          Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not?

          by RFK Lives on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 11:00:43 AM PST

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    •  Chained cpi is coming. (7+ / 0-)

      Rs will only support this if they can cause pain to Dems and make Obama look bad.  

      The Southern Rs are driven by racism underneath this.  We are seeing a split between Northern and Southern Rs in the vote yesterday.

      I suspect that Big Business will make demands on Rs to agree to a deal, and may influence some Northern Rs.  But the South is working on destroying our nation, and the Koch Brothers will finance that destruction.

      It wil take massive financial support by Wall Street and others to get Northern Rs to vote for any deal.  

      Big Business has to decide if they want to be ruled by the Koch Brothers libertarian/Bircherism.  

      I think they do not.  So a class collaborationist coalition between Obama, Wall Street, most Dems, and Northern Rs could pass a deal that most progressives will hate, but that does not gut the social welfare state.    

      Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

      by TomP on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 09:34:46 AM PST

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      •  unless you think (0+ / 0-)

        those Northern Republicans could be persuaded by Big Business to vote for a clean debt ceiling increase, incur the wrath of their Tea Party base that would follow, and deal with a primary challenge, then we're looking at negotiations.

        And yeah, I think chained CPI is probably the bargaining chip the WH likes best and would be willing to offer up first.

        "We must all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately." - Benjamin Franklin

        by CaptUnderpants on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 09:42:55 AM PST

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      •  chained CPI is slow death for Social Security. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JamieG from Md

        It's another step in dismantling the social safety net. It's a signal that the Dems have jumped the shark.

        •  I think it is a bad thing. I would not go so far (0+ / 0-)

          as to portray it as you do.  Of course, there's always raising the medicare age.  Any deal to avoid default will cost dearly.  All the things they will deamnd will be terrible.  We will see if public pressure matters.

          Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

          by TomP on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 10:12:49 AM PST

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      •  Chained CPI (0+ / 0-)

        and I would add a raise in medicare age as well.  I'm not sure what they will do with medicaid but I would be worried about that as well.

    •  Sequestration will not cause a recession (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      grrr, elmo, librarisingnsf, Bon Temps, MPociask

      Ignoring the impact sequestration would have from reducing existing programs that hurt those paid by these programs for the moment.

      Total government spending across Federal, State and Local still increases year over year with sequestration.  In addition, the sequestration is less than $100 billion this year out of about $5,900 billion.  So government spending is still higher than last year, but reduced by less than 2% from what it would be otherwise.

      As half the sequestration is for military spending, this is one of the best opportunities to reduce military spending we will ever see.  In addition, as defense spending is disproportionately spent outside the US, if spending cuts were focused on foreign spending, the secondary impacts of the spending cuts would be extremely small.

      Cutting US defense spending in Europe, Japan and Korea are long overdue, and do little to stimulate the US economy.

      The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

      by nextstep on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 09:49:43 AM PST

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    •  Turn that around (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Deep Texan, JamieG from Md

      Republicans have to negotiate over their sequestration cuts because they and their defense contractor lobby simply can't tolerate them. The cuts on are side are, comparatively, bearable.

      So we have the wind at our backs there.

      With respect to the debt ceiling, Obama will use public opinion against Republicans again as he did on the fiscal cliff. He'll go out on the road and ask Americans if they really would like to see the U.S. default on our debt because Republicans insist on cutting popular programs like Social Security and Medicare.

      •  Going on the road will help public opinion (0+ / 0-)

        ...but it doesn't provide for a strategy for avoiding negotiating over the debt ceiling increase at some point. The GOP doesn't roll over in the face of bad press like that.

        "We must all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately." - Benjamin Franklin

        by CaptUnderpants on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 11:47:47 AM PST

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    •  With no tax cuts to hold as leverage? Fat chance.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Scandalous One

      The GOP will demand cuts to the Big 3 in exchange for raising the debt ceiling...and Obama will cave on, ay minimum, SS.

      With regards to the endgame, do you really think the GOP gives a rat's ass about a recession? They'll roll those dice right into the 2014 and 2016 elections. At this stage, all they have is an impotent House majority that is currently in shambles. They have next to nothing to lose.

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