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View Diary: How will Obama avoid another debt ceiling fight with the House GOP? (79 comments)

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  •  Two points (3+ / 0-)
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    TomP, edwardssl, CaptUnderpants

    1. 169 is not a House majority, and the composition of the House changes slightly.

    2. Some of those 169 were safe voting "no" given that there were 40 extra votes for passage. They were able to put on their Tea Party theater for back home. Not sure that means they won't blink if it seems default will be blamed on them.

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 11:04:19 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  both true (0+ / 0-)

      However, we didn't have 218 votes for a clean debt ceiling increase in the House even on the eve of default back in August 2011. Almost all of those 169 who voted no last night, on the brink of going over the fiscal cliff, would be also voting against a debt ceiling increase when we are on the brink of going over in a month or so. And that number will certainly increase for the reasons I stated above.

      "We must all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately." - Benjamin Franklin

      by CaptUnderpants on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 11:44:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The big question (0+ / 0-)

        is whether Obama will call their bluff or force them to do it.  I think that, if the GOP causes default due to unreasonable demands, the medium-term damage to the GOP brand will exceed the damage to the economy by a lot.

        If I'm Obama and I want to accomplish anything at all during my second term, I use the State of the Union to warn the nation about their nonsense, and get ready for a televised speech in late February. I would explain the issue, the long history of routine debt ceiling increases, and ask Americans to bring the political wrath of God down on these guys.

        There's plenty of evidence for your theory that he'll cave. But I don't think political dynamics are the same now as in August 2011, and I don't think all who claimed they were ready to default, rather than take a clean bill, then will actually do it.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 12:23:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

          There's plenty of evidence for your theory that he'll cave. But I don't think political dynamics are the same now as in August 2011

          You are right,...they are worse.  For the first time in 12 years, republicans don't have to worry about extending the Bush Tax Cuts.  It now takes a vote to recind them, not the other way around.  With that albatross off their backs, and since all republicans really ever care about is taxes, there simply is no leverage on the GOP.  Even in 2011, they had the looming threat of the presidential election.  

          And, before you ask, they aren't all that worried about 2014.  Hell will freeze over before a minority party takes over the House in their own president's second midterm.  My guess is that by summer 2014, Dems will be so embarassed, dejected, and demoralized by the previous 18 months, that just keeping the Senate will be a challenge.

          •  We'll see (0+ / 0-)

            Dems picked up a few seats, though didn't quite take the House, in 1998 because the GOP jumped the shark. As tawdry as their Lewinsky-mongering was, default would be much worse.

            I could see it going either way. What you say is true. But the political dynamics also are changed, I think, in that Obama does not need to worry about re-election anymore (I think he was much more worried than the GOP about the 2012 election in August 2011). And the country is more clearly down on the radical element of the House GOP than it was in August 2011.

            Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

            by fenway49 on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 07:31:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

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