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View Diary: Climate Change driven Sea Level Rise could trigger 10 X increase in Volcanic Eruptions (52 comments)

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  •  hold on a second. Interesting, but let's cool the (13+ / 0-)

    alarmism a bit.

    Also from that article:

    But even if anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change impacts volcanic eruptions, we won't see the effect in our lifetimes, because the volcanic activity doesn't occur immediately after the climate change, Jegen said.

    "We predict there's a time lag of about 2,500 years," Jegen said. "So even if we change the climate, you wouldn’t really expect anything to happen in the next few thousand years."

    •  Why let details interfere with a good horror (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bnk, Algernons Labyrinth, jayden, cynndara

      story?

      There's a big lack of mechanism here as well.

      Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

      by elfling on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 09:03:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  this site is just silly 99% of the time... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bnk

        although I will give the diarist credit for pointing out that article.  I haven't read the full one published in Geology but it would be interesting to read.  

        But yeah, I agree with you--it's the epitome of bad science to grab a stripped down article about a completely different set of prehistoric circumstances and use it to suggest that Mt. Ranier is going to be the next Tambora in 2014.....

        But what can ya do....inform those who we can, I guess.

        •  One mechanism that is reasonable (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Creosote, Lefty Coaster, AoT

          and would increase the destructiveness of Rainier (but not by eruptions), for example, and which we could see in our lifetimes, is destabilization of unconsolidated slopes due to melting glacial ice and increased water intrusion into the hot interior, with resultant lahars coming off the mountain.

    •  So we have maybe 2000 yrs to move those cities (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jayden, Words In Action

      “The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” ~ John Kenneth Galbraith

      by Lefty Coaster on Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 11:11:00 PM PST

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    •  my reaction too (5+ / 0-)

      at first sight I found it incredible on its face (as far as sea level rise by itself should be the culprit via changed pressure on the ocean floor: the mean ocean depth is 3600 meters and the sea level fluctuation has a dimension of 10s of meters).

      then I looked for the abstract and it is here.

      Abstract

      A rigorous detection of Milankovitch periodicities in volcanic output across the Pleistocene-Holocene ice age has remained elusive. We report on a spectral analysis of a large number of well-preserved ash plume deposits recorded in marine sediments along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Our analysis yields a statistically significant detection of a spectral peak at the obliquity period. We propose that this variability in volcanic activity results from crustal stress changes associated with ice age mass redistribution. In particular, increased volcanism lags behind the highest rate of increasing eustatic sea level (decreasing global ice volume) by 4.0 ± 3.6 k.y. and correlates with numerical predictions of stress changes at volcanically active sites. These results support the presence of a causal link between variations in ice age climate, continental stress field, and volcanism.

      Full version behind paywall.

      Honestly, people need to see this in context. They are talking about a changing stress field in the lithosphere due to glacial unloading. That is much more a thinkable idea than the minimal pressure effects of the sea level in itself. But it takes time above all, as they themselves say. They also have looked at the periodicity in ash deposits from subduction zone volcanism, which is generated in a zone where sea level pressure effects by themselves are completely irrelevant. Luithosperic flexure can be relevant there. But human civilization will exterminate itself ten times over before that effect is felt.

      And above all one has to wait if this alleged detection holds up under the criticism that is sure to come out of the community.

    •  an afterthought (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lefty Coaster, bevenro, AoT

      they have been looking at the crustal stress effects of the naturally occurring ice ages.

      One has to realize that the ice age ice sheets were massive. Today we have something like that only in Antarctica. We have no Laurentide Ice Sheet left to melt, only little Greenland. Basically - we are already in an Interglacial; so we havent much isostatic rebound left to artificially cause by AGW.

      That alone should make clear that whether or not they have found a real effect, it is not one that is going to trouble us in the foreseeable future.
       

    •  Oh, bummer! The volcanic eruptions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW

      won't happen soon enough to prevent climate disaster.

      Renewable energy brings national global security.     

      by Calamity Jean on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 03:20:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you for highlighting that (0+ / 0-)

      Things are bad enough as it is, we don't need to freak out about everything.

      The revolution will not be televised. But it will be blogged, a lot. Probably more so than is necessary.

      by AoT on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 09:39:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  you know, the fact that I received about 2 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AoT

        condescending and mocking responses to what I thought was reasonable criticism disturbs me...

        It illustrates why the Fox 'skeptics' get traction.  Because a few of us DO take things and blow them so far out of proportion so far as to be unrecognizable by the scientists who actually research this stuff....

        Thanks for the support :)

        •  It is frustrating (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bevenro

          And doubly so because it means that the real danger gets ignored or blown off as being exaggerated.  There's enough bad stuff happening now, and even more that is going to happen, that we don't need to exaggerate.  All this sort of exaggeration does is lead to despair, because really if we have volcanoes to deal with too it's all pretty pointless.

          The revolution will not be televised. But it will be blogged, a lot. Probably more so than is necessary.

          by AoT on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 11:19:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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