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View Diary: We're Screwed Through 2022 (80 comments)

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  •  Best hope (7+ / 0-)

    Is natural people movement/. Remember, they gerrymandered last time too; in 2002, it was common wisdom that we couldn't take the House for another decade. We won because people move around naturally; gerrymandering can't account for that.

    What we need is one of the following;

    A) Something which raises midterm turnout among minority/young voters
    B) Something which depresses elderly conservative voter turnout OR opens them to voting for us

    Neither is very likely, both are incredibly unlikely in 2014. Which is why, as I've said elsewhere, we need to focus on winning governors'races which can't be gerrymandered and then forcing better maps next time.

    •  Time is on our side (5+ / 0-)

      for both A & B.

      A - The majority of school age kids in much of the nation are minority, so young voters will tend to be more Democratic (if we can get them registered and showing up).
      B - The majority of elderly voters are white - many of the cranky old conservative variety, so dead voters will tend to be Republican.

      It's not a rapid change by any means, but the trend is on our side.

      And you are right that even if Democratic voters get packed into a few districts by gerrymandering, that does not work for statewide races.

      Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

      by bear83 on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 04:57:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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