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View Diary: Taking Back The House 2014: Michele Bachmann (206 comments)

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  •  Well, accident (7+ / 0-)

    Starting with the 1970 Census there has never been agreement between the MN lege (one or both Houses) and/or the governor's office on whose map to use when re-districting.
          Therefore by default the whole thing ends up in the courts, who do the line-drawing in a very minimalist way.
           It works against gerrymandering, which is a good thing, but it is by accident, not by design.

    As far as unseating Bachmann in MN-06, yes, we need to keep trying, if only to keep her pinned down.

    But I agree with Bill Prendergast, who has followed Bachmann's career since her days on a school board, through the MN lege and on to the national stage. Bill says she will be very tough to beat because of the massive fundagelical money machine behind her AND because of the existence of the Independence Party here in MN.
         The reasons Jim Graves made it as close as he did in 2012 were
         a) the Independence Party DID NOT RUN a candidate, allowing the anti-Bachmann vote to unite behind one candidate,
         b) Jim could self-fund (and did to a good extent, but he also raised some good money, just not in the $15mill. range like MB did---like no other House candidate did or ever has done in US history) and
         c) while redistricting added +1 to the R coloring of the MN-06, the parts added (Chaska/Chanhassen, parts of Eden Prairie, exurban Minnetonka) are old-line Republican: wealthy, country-club types who were/are APPALLED at the idea of being in Bachmann's district but loath to pull the lever for a Democrat. Graves worked these areas hard and it almost paid off.

    Actually, if the goal is to flip seats to the Democratic Party column, the MN -02 (2nd ring and ex-urb southern suburbs of the Twin cities) offers good possibilities. John Kline is the R incumbent and far more conservative than the general make-up of his constituents. But he is usually fairly well-funded, does good constituent service (certainly compared to Bachmann) and draws badly underfunded nobodies as Democratic opponents.
           MN-02 moved from R+ 2 to EVEN after redistricting but no one has plowed this ground with decent money and an early start to make it a contest.

    Even MN-03 (second ring Western suburbs of Minneapolis) (Paulsen-R) is a better choice. Historically a swing district, long represented by Jim Ramstad (a moderate to even liberal R), Paulsen won the seat 4 years ago when Ramsted retired. The D candidates have been invisible and underfunded, which is a damn shame. Paulsen votes with Bachmann 94% of the time but no one has been able to point out to the district just how far to the loony right Paulsen is compared to the district as a whole.

    Jim Graves has so far demurred on making a run for anything in 2014. But he or someone like him who want to go to Congress as a Democrat from MN would have much better odds running in the 2nd or 3rd than trying to oust Bachmann.

    So, do you want one or even 2 more Democratic seats, or do you want to lose to Bachmann again? The Democratic dilemma in Minnesota.


    "God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15

    by WineRev on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:33:25 AM PST

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    •  Spot on as always (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, jncca, GoUBears

      However, I would quibble about Kline always facing weak candidates. I think Colleen Rowley was an intriguing candidate- Time Magazine "Person of the Year" in 2002 as FBI whistleblower who tried to prevent 9/11 attacks. However, she was easily beaten by Kline. It seems as long as he keeps his head down, the seat is his for as long as he wants.

      I think MN House seats are pretty well set for now. We gained back MN-8 for DFL with Nolan. As long as Walz and Peterson stay in MN-1 and MN-7, then we should keep a 5-3 advantage in the US House. While we would all like to get rid of Bachmann, might be better to focus on more feasible goals.

      For 2014- keeping Franken in Senate will be a key priority. Last I saw, he will be favored. I am not sure if there will be a strong repub candidate, but could be a close battle.

      •  Franken's opponents (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, elwior

        at the moment seem scarce.
        Norm Coleman (Mr. Absent from the State Since He Lost) has made no sound about a re-match.
        Tim Pawlenty (Mr. Never above 46% statewide) likewise has been silent.

        Michelle Bachmann is the only other real GOPer with statewide name recognition and her message does NOT play well outside of her nature preserve of the MN-06.

        And just to emphasize things, Erick Paulsen of the MN-03 made a pointed statement this week he has no interest in challenging Franken either.

        So for the moment the GOP would need to recruit a well-financed no-name, while Franken's approval ratings have slowly but steadily risen from his 42% winning figure in 2008 to a recent 52-53%. Hardly stellar (see Klobuchar, Amy) but above the crucial 50% mark (and his DISapprovals have slowly sunk into the mid-30s) and certainly strong enough to make him a morning-line favorite for re-election.


        "God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15

        by WineRev on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 10:30:55 AM PST

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        •  I've been happily surprised by Franken (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          The fact that he is just another Senator and not a showboater makes me like him a lot more.  I could see the whole comedian goes to Washington thing turning out really badly.

          There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

          by slothlax on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:39:33 PM PST

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