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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (373 comments)

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  •  A little concerned by the recruitment process (0+ / 0-)

    Democratic side:

    I hope to see all the Democratic incumbents running again, except maybe F Lautenberg and P Quinn. Until now, between the new people, no-one of the most important potential candidates is running:

    -

    Also, a good number of the top-names rejected a bid:

    NM-Gov: J Bingaman
    WV-Sen: J Rockefeller
    PA-Gov: K Kane (leaving E Rendell for the senate)
    OH-Gov: T Strickland
    MA-Gov: D Patrick

    That let on the top of my list:

    NV-Gov: B Miller
    AZ-Gov: J Napolitano (I have not trouble if she continues in the Cabinet)
    IL-Gov: L Madigan (leaving M Obama for the senate)
    NJ-Sen: ??????????
    MA-Sen or MA-Gov: J Kennedy II
    WI-Gov: R Feingold (leaving J Doyle for the senate)
    ME-Sen: C Pingree
    FL-Gov: C Crist or A Sink

    Few of them seems close to run. The polls for NJ seems crazy, and I know not who would be the best candidate at this point.

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    Republican side:

    The Republicans also need all their incumbents running, except maybe R Scott. Between the new people they have some success in the recruitment:

    WV-Sen: S Capito
    SD-Sen: M Rounds

    But they have also some important failure:

    LA-Sen: B Jindal
    SC-Sen: J DeMint

    And this let in the list of doubts that I fear most:

    AK-Sen: S Parnell
    NC-Sen: P McCrory
    FL-Gov: J Bush
    MT-Sen: M Racicot
    AZ-Gov: J Kyl
    VA-Gov: J Kilgore
    AR-Sen: M Huckabee

    The Republicans seems to have still more room to improve their recruitment.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I'm a little concerned because the Democratic party is doing the recruitment a little worse than the Republicans. I hope that improve.

    •  I think it's a bit much to ask Kane (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, jncca, sawolf, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      to run just after being elected to AG.

      In Arizona I think Carmona is actually stronger than Napolitano.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 02:33:50 PM PST

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      •  Much stronger (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, NMLib, James Allen

        Just going off of PPP's polling, Carmona's final pre-election numbers were 40/43 fav/unfav while Napolitano's were 40/55 in early 2011.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 02:43:18 PM PST

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      •  surely you are right about Kane (0+ / 0-)

        but she appears as the strongest option after Rendell in the polls. Still, we see two close cases in Ohio and New Mexico the last cycle in the Republican side.

        About Arizona it is not easy to compare, but my numerical works show Flake a lot weaker than Kyl, McCain or Brewer. Napolitano has some recent bad poll but was vs Kyl, and not vs Flake. It is an important difference.

    •  Running for Senate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, abgin

      midway through your first term as Governor might not play so well.

    •  Seriously man, this list is kind of weird... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Jeff Bingaman was never an option for running for governor, I don't know why any list would even bother putting him on there. But we have a solid recruit in Gary King, that's pretty good.

      Rockefeller was in trouble, him retiring is probably a good thing, not a bad thing at this point. I don't think Rockefeller would have held on any more.

      Massachusetts is a deep bench, even if Republicans get Scott Brown to run for governor, we're still in good shape to keep the governor's mansion.

      We've fought over this before, but no one prominent on the Democratic side will run unless Susan Collins retires. If she retires, we have that seat in the bag (unless Eliot Cutler decides to run, at which point, it might not be a bad idea to cede the senate seat to him, but I'm willing to wait and see).

      Florida has term limits, so Jeb Bush running is something of a moot point.

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 03:05:13 PM PST

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      •  You are missing the point of my comment (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        And I dislike you use words like weird.

        You can close the eyes to the reality if you want. But the reality is that there is not a Democrat free in NM with stronger support of the people than J Bingaman, and to have not him in the race for governor cause a damage to the options of the Democratic Party in the race and in overall terms.

        The listed candidates have a proved strength over other candidates of the own party in their home states. I tell not if they would have an easy or difficult bid. But they would make a difference for the own party in terms of making the race easy in some cases or in terms of making the race only competitive in other cases. Even J Rockfeller, I forget not the polls Capito vs Tomblin of 2011.

        And the result of this is also clear in the real world. In the case of NM, we have S Martinez leading by 12 in the polls over a weaker Democratic candidate than Bingaman. Still I think it is a winnable race, but I dislike the fact that will be necessary a lot more of money without Bingaman.

        About the term limits of Florida, if Im not wrong there are for two consecutive four year terms.

        It is the time of the recruitment. It is the time to find the strongest candidates that make easier the races for the Democratic party can save resources for other races. And  I think it is also the time to look at the other side for knowing if they are doing better or not. With the spirit of improving.

        •  I stand by what I said (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          The list is weird, I'm sorry you don't like that I use that term, but I don't apologize for using it, I think it fits.

          It's not realistic to look at Jeff Bingaman in the light of running for governor, he has never, at any point shown any possible interest in being governor, and he retired because he didn't want to be in public office anymore (actually, Chuck Schumer had to drag him back kicking and screaming back in 2006). Democrats have a top-tier candidate in Gary King (incumbent Attorney General, and very popular statewide) and he's the strongest candidate that Democrats could realistically get. Any list that doesn't recognize that is not valid, period.

          In Florida, something that could hypothetically happen is nice, but I don't know in what universe one could ever expect Florida Republicans to ever convince Jeb Bush, who doesn't seem to have any eye for running for anything at all, to mount a primary challenge to a sitting governor.

          Since we have those two, I'm wondering why you don't think it's a massive recruitment failure that Republicans didn't get Olympia Snowe to mount a primary challenge to Paul LePage...

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 05:42:07 PM PST

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    •  Hmm... (4+ / 0-)

      Mike Huckabee for Senate...a.k.a Mark Pryor cakewalks to reelection.

      •  Huckabee is no longer popular in AR? n/t (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        shigeru, Zack from the SFV, gabjoh

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 03:44:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think he lives in AR anymore, (3+ / 0-)

          he's out of touch with the modern Republican base (population trends, fiscal liberalism and the like), and he's made some pretty outrageous statements since he left the governor position.

          •  outrageous? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            It is interesting. And good for Pryor and the Democratic Party. This would be the trouble of the Republicans. I will be not defending his chance. But I fear him in the race.

            The last (numeric) news that we have about Huckabee in Arkansas are form the Republican primary of 2008, where he performed well winning the state with more than a 60% of the vote and taking all the delegates of the state.

            In overall terms it is very interesting like a good number of Republicans forget the interest of his own party and are reading more to bids for president, leaving to the Democratic side some important offices in their home states.

            •  You are using data from four years ago.. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen

              That's a problem. Four years ago, Blanche Lincoln was still in the Senate, the Democrats had a 3/4 majority in the state legislature and Mike Huckabee was the only Republican of note in the state (Boozman was never that visible until 2010.

              Since 2008, new voters have emerged in Arkansas, mainly in Saline County, Garland County, Washington County, and Benton County. Most of them were not here during Huckabee's time as governor and only know and like people like Tim Griffin or Steve Womack. The Durmond/Clemency pardons have not helped Huckabee's image within the state, nor his support of Todd Akin, nor his lack of support for Delta residents. Not to mention that the guy was accused by the Club for Growth of supporting five tax increases, and increasing state spending by 65 million dollars. Randy Minton, a former Arkansas State Legislator and Republican claimed that Huckabee's support for constant taxes split the party and probably caused a five-eight year delay of them gaining power. The Cato Institute gave him a "D" for his two terms as governor.

              Point is, Huckabee is a disaster. If he gets through the primary, Mark Pryor will easily take 65% in Little Rock and probably do a bit better in the fiscally conservative, socially apathetic suburbs.

    •  Wait a second (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      You think that it was a failure for Republicans that Jim DeMint resigned or that Moran has failed to recruit DeMint to primary Graham in 2014?

      Doyle for Senate would be awful. Didn't he leave really unpopular? How about Ron Kind?

    •  WI-Gov 2014/WI-Sen 2016 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, abgin

      Most Wisconsin Democrats are downright scared to take on Scott Walker in 2014, however, he's more vulnerable than most people think he is. Walker is the only Governor of a U.S. state to have a criminal defense fund, several of his former aides were convicted as part of the "John Doe probe", and Walker, while has not yet been charged with any crimes, has not been cleared of any wrongdoing himself. The only elected Democratic official in Wisconsin who appears to be even remotely interested in a run against Scott Walker is Peter Barca, the Minority Leader of the Wisconsin State Assembly. If Barca doesn't run, Wisconsin Democrats will probably have to recruit either a former elected official, such as Jessica King (Jim Doyle is simply not interested in a return to politics), or someone who has never held elected office before, such as Mahlon Mitchell.

      Ron Johnson is seen as much more vulnerable in 2016 than Scott Walker is in 2014, and Russ Feingold is reportedly considering running for his old seat. If Russ Feingold doesn't run, expect numerous Democrats to run in a crowded primary field for the right to take on Johnson, in which Johnson's only hope of winning re-election is to draw some ultra-liberal challenger like Melissa Sargent.

      I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 09:21:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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