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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (373 comments)

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  •  I'm skeptical (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    These very popular red-state Governors don't like to tarnish their images with tough federal races they fear they would lose.  People like Bredeson in Tennessee, Moore and Hood in Mississippi, Henry in Oklahoma, and Freudenthal in Wyoming would rather hang it up and leave popular then take their chances in tough Senate races where they'd be more tied to a national party unpopular in their states.

    So as much as it would help us if they ran, I doubt people like Nixon or Steve Beshear will ever be on a U.S. Senate ballot.  I'd be thrilled to be wrong.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 07:06:38 PM PST

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    •  Missouri is less red (3+ / 0-)

      than the other states you mention. That's the difference. I think Beshear could have a chance in KY, and conceivably Bredesen in TN, if he ever decided to run for an open seat. The others would have very little chance at all.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 07:26:36 PM PST

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      •  I agree they would have a GREAT chance, BUT... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, redrelic17

        ...they would be locked in tough races that likely wouldn't be any better than tossups.

        That's the problem, it's too easy for a Democrat, any Democrat, to lose a U.S. Senate race in a conservative state.  Not much has to go wrong for our guy to lose.  And they know that.

        I could foresee an exception perhaps if Rand Paul gets himself in hot water going forward and Beshear is still hungry to be in the game and also smells blood.  Paul is the kind of Senator who could be in trouble simply because his politics are pretty eccentric and he won't compromise them very much...although he's compromised them at least in dishonest rhetoric far more than his dad ever did.  But Rand Paul is never more than one or two unpopular votes away from being very vulnerable to the right Democrat.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 09:06:14 PM PST

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    •  One big difference (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      Nixon has run for the Senate before (twice, in fact), none of those other guys you mentioned have. I'm not sure if he'd be interested in a third bid, but he's much more likely than any of the other possible red-state (former) Governors.

      •  Actually I think Beshear ran for Senate... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, sapelcovits

        ...a very long time ago, in the 90s or perhaps even the 80s.

        He was a struggling pol until the Fletcher scandal opened the door for him to give high elective office one last try, and it worked out and now he's wildly popular.

        But ultimately having run for Senate before doesn't necessarily matter in guessing these guys' thinking, once they've been popular Governors that easily changes everything for them going forward.  They just might not want to risk their popularity and legacy with a losing Senate run in a tough state.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 09:02:39 PM PST

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      •  Didn't Beshear run back in the day (0+ / 0-)

        I thought he also ran before, that being said I agree I don't think he'll run again and Nixon is more likely...

        OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

        by aamail6 on Sat Jan 12, 2013 at 09:47:54 PM PST

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