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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/8 (342 comments)

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  •  Gov. Christie cruising toward reelection (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, MichaelNY, dc1000

    He pummels all tested possible opponents by more than 30 points (vs. Buono by more than 40, vs. Sweeney by more than 45) in a Fairleigh Dickinson poll. Of course, the Democrats would close the gap as they garnered more name recognition and went on the attack, but it's a pretty tough sell to recruit a top-tier candidate with numbers like this, and it's daunting to say the least to ask a second- or third-tier candidate like Buono (the only one who has declared, AFAIK) to come back from a 40+ point deficit less than a year out. Results here.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 12:41:44 PM PST

    •  Wow we need to run Richard Codey stat (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY, R30A, bumiputera, jncca

      while Christie's 73/19 approvals (62-29 among Democrats!) makes him look nigh unbeatable, Codey has an impressive 56/18 fav/unfav spread among the 55% who have heard of him.  Sweeney seems to be the worst possible plausible candidate we could run, for anything ever.  The guy only has 44% name rec, but among those people he's underwater 25/39.

      Oh, and Codey is the only one of the three named candidates in the poll who actually wins Democrats (ugh...) It's such a shame Corzine didn't just retire in 2009, then we'd be talking about Chris who?

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 12:56:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree, Buono looks better daily (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      Don't all these polls greatly increase Buono's stock? Getting in early is a hallmark of long shot candidates like Buono appeared to be, but it seems to have been a good decision. Buono is the only candidate who we know can raise money against Christie. With an establishment candidate like Sweeney or Codey, their donors are probably also more establishment, and thus more likely to have converted to Christie. Since Democrats also seems so unlikely to win, that means outside groups and lobbying groups probably won't contribute money no matter who the nominee is, so nominating someone with more connections or a better political résumé might not matter much. Buono however has showed she can raise money even against Chrisitie, presumably by tapping the most partisan donors (we are the 29%?) So despite being an apparently second-tier candidate, it might be hard to challenge her for the nomination, and would also seem to position her better to take on Christie better than these other candidates with better résumés.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 02:05:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting outside-the-box perspective (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Codey really an establishment guy, though? I thought the party bosses in South Jersey prevented him from running for Governor. Am I confusing him with someone else?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 03:13:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Barbara Buono should take this to account (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY

        If first you dont succeed try again. She's not going to when this time around, but will be in a much better position if she want to run again in '17 when Christie is term limited and coming off his fail presidential bid. I have a hard time believing that Republicans are going to elect another Northeastern Republican as their standard barrier. Mitt Romney was a exception cause the field was a total laughing stock.

        Honestly I wish she was running for the US Senate  instead of Booker.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 05:34:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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