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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/10 (305 comments)

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  •  NC-07 (8+ / 0-)

    I'm not so sure that McIntyre will have a harder time winning without Obama on the ballot - it seems Obama made it harder on a lot of Blue Dogs this year - in fact, many of them had tougher races than in 2010.   (Because of the high number of people voting straight Republican.)

    Here's a quick analysis.   The 7th district can be split into two parts:   The "Demosaur" counties, Columbus, Bladen, Sampson, and Duplin, are McIntyre's base.  Only one of those four actually voted for Obama - Bladen by a very small margin, but McIntyre racks up huge margins in Columbus and Bladen - always thirty points or more - and he wins Sampson and Duplin, though not by as much.

    Then the second part of the district:  Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, and the new county - Rouzer's home - Johnston.  All of these used to be "Demosaur" counties just a few decades ago, but they have had huge population growth in the last decade or two.  (Brunswick is near the top of the list for fastest growing counties in the US).  All are typical suburban Republican counties and are less willing to vote for Democrats, even conservative Democrats (New Hanover is 50-50 politically but the Democratic areas of the county have been removed from the 7th district).

    In 2010 and 2012, McIntyre's performance was pretty stable in the rural counties - about 65% in Columbus and Bladen, less in Sampson & Duplin.  He improved in Brunswick by a bout 5 points, and New Hanover (what parts of it are left) by 10 points.  There may have been a  primary effect here - Ilario Pantano was from Wilmington and he lost the primary to Rouzer.  Also, the redistricting plan was very unpopular with Wilmington-area voters because it split Southeastern NC.  So there were more than a few "protest votes" for McIntyre from Republicans here.

    The good news is, the Democratic voter turnout drop-off will not be very pronounced in the "suburban" counties because they are only about 15-20% minority.  In the rural counties, McIntyre should do better due to Obama not being on the ballot - he has gotten 80% in some of them in the past, I say he should aim to get 70% or more.

    The one thing McIntyre must do, though, is not to alienate liberal Democrats too much in this session.  He has done next to nothing to appease them in the past and I would say most Democrats in New Hanover County (where I'm from) despise him, but vote for him anyway because he's ALWAYS better than the opponent (Rouzer and Pantano were real nuts.)  I don't think he'd be vulnerable to a primary but if there was a concentrated effort on a write in or third party campaign as there was in the 8th District this year against Larry Kissell, McIntyre would be a goner - especially if the margin was anywhere near as close as it was in 2012.

    •  Thanks for this. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Both Romney and Obama contested NC so there may be less straight-ticket Republican voters in a midterm as well.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 10, 2013 at 03:45:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Which is what I think you said among others (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        I was just reiterating what I've been thinking about this district.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 10, 2013 at 03:46:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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