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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/11 (261 comments)

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  •  Not even that, this is a pure tossup (12+ / 0-)

    I'm sighing with exasperation at the hangwringing.  I skimmed the diary on the retirement itself to find too much know-nothing doom porn, but then even here it's unrealistically pessimistic.

    This race is a pure tossup out of the gate, period.  It's no worse than that, it's not lean R.

    WV isn't the Deep South, they still love their local and state Dems who make up the Dem bench.

    And the GOP has barely made a dent in federal races, they got Capito years ago and McKinley in 2010 and that's it.  The "tossup" in 2010 with Manchin ended up a double-digit Democratic win in a Republican wave year.

    Tomblin beat Maloney, who proved a pretty good candidate for Team Red, twice recently for Governor.

    We have a deep bench, Rahall already is publicly looking at it, and Capito is already under fire from the right and could easily lose the primary to a nut.

    There's no rational basis for calling this anything worse than a tossup upon close examination.

    And, there's a very good chance Jay Rockefeller was toast if he ran.  His coal comments and voting record broadly greatly endangered him at least, and that he's in a tossup already meant he probably wouldn't survive the heat of campaign attacks and closer voter scrutiny.  Rockefeller is no Jon Tester, he doesn't have a political record or personal profile (he's a Rockefeller!) to fit his state's politics today.

    I think Taniel on Twitter is about the only person I've seen so far today who has a grasp of all this, although I'm hoping and expecting to run across more here.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:21:17 AM PST

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