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View Diary: 2016: Dukakis leads the way (123 comments)

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  •  Republican support won't pick up (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RamblinDave, wu ming, quetzal

    among Latinos. I'm no statistician, sociologist, or pundit, but I'm comfortable making this prediction. The GOP message, at its core, has been about nativism and white privilege. They can't turn on a dime.

    You can mark my words.

    It's here they got the range/ and the machinery for change/ and it's here they got the spiritual thirst. --Leonard Cohen

    by karmsy on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 07:47:35 AM PST

    •  Not only that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      karmsy, Dr Swig Mcjigger, slothlax

      But even if they did take steps to attract more minorities, that would cost them among racist whites. The racist whites won't flip to the Democrats, of course, but their absence will still hurt the Republicans.

      Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

      by RamblinDave on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 07:55:35 AM PST

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      •  No matter how much money you have, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RamblinDave, quetzal

        no matter how good your connections are, if you're a big, ungainly beast, you can't maneuver to save your life.

        It's here they got the range/ and the machinery for change/ and it's here they got the spiritual thirst. --Leonard Cohen

        by karmsy on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 07:57:43 AM PST

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    •  At least, not for a long time. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      karmsy, slothlax, quetzal

      Even if the Republicans do start to make the effort, it will take a few years before the part as a whole washes off the racist stink.  By that time, an entire generation of Latinos will have been locked in a lifelong Democrats.

      Art is the handmaid of human good.

      by joe from Lowell on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 10:05:20 AM PST

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    •  Might not happen this cycle (0+ / 0-)

      But there are plenty of Italian and Irish American Republicans.  That same evolution will happen with the various Latino communities, whether the nativists like it or not.

      I've always been uncomfortable with the idea that Latinos are a separate "race".  I mean, race is a social construct anyway, but I've always seen Latinos the way I see Southern and Eastern European immigrants from the turn of the last century.  Common language has made it easier to lump all Latinos together, but in a generation or two I see "Latino" becoming just another ethnic category, more based on country of origin than "Latiness".

      There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

      by slothlax on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 11:31:28 AM PST

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    •  Well I am a Sociologist and a Statistician :-) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slothlax

      and I agree with you to an extent. The question will be where can the Republicans chip off the base? I could see white gay men slowly trickling toward the Republicans in places like New York, California, etc...not enough to shift an election, but could be. I could also see more affluent Hispanics, especially our gains in the Cuban community in Florida, shifting to the right. Puerto Ricans are another group that could potentially swing. Remember, Hispanics are not a monolithic group, and the Puerto Ricans and Cubans that live in Florida are not the same as the Central and South Americans that live in the West. Issues like immigration may not hold as much sway with the Florida Hispanic population. I'd have to look up the General Social Survey data on it, but it wouldn't shock me.

      Born in TN-05 and Live in TN-05, Went to college in TN-09 and TN-06, Married in IA-02.

      by zakandsantos on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 07:04:23 AM PST

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