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View Diary: China doubles its installed solar electricity to 7 gigawatts. Will add 10 gigawatts in 2013 (81 comments)

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  •  Capacity Does Not Equal Delivered Energy!!!!! (0+ / 0-)

    Let's say that China does use some of their mothballed and deliberately made PV manufacturing overcapacity to make PV systems that actually get installed in China. Great! Let's say that they make and install 10 GW of PV capacity in China next year. It's a good way to utilize spare labor and resources (although the very large quantity of electricity made with coal that is used to make PVs that is supercheap and thus its own subsidy is conveniently ignored....).

    10 GW of PV capacity is somewhe between 1 to 1.2 GW in terms of delivered electricity, unless these are installed in the Mongolian deserts (in which case they would not be grid connected...), where the net ouput of PVs is up to 20% of their capacity. China's intense smog will also affect any PV systems installed in or downwind of urban zones, especially via the particulate pollution that blocks a lot of sunlight from getting to the surface of the planet.

    Anyway, of great significance is that 10 GW of Slave labor made PV manufacturing capability will be taken off of the world market. China can employ its own slaves, and this stops a bit of slave labor based mercentilism from degrading wages in more advanced countries. It will also allow prices of PV systems to rise to perhaps sustainable pricing levels. Last year virtually every PV manufacturer lost money. And it makes no sense to operate a mlti-billion dollar industry that loses bilions of dollars every year because prices are less than the cost to manufacture these systems.

    Nb41

    •  Virtually every company in the world invests (0+ / 0-)

      capital ahead of revenue. It's part of what is called strategy. Why not governments? We have national interests, why not approach them strategically?

      And it makes no sense to operate a mlti-billion dollar industry that loses bilions of dollars every year because prices are less than the cost to manufacture these systems.
      This is wrong on other levels, but can be completely rejected on any one level.

      The Class, Terror and Climate Wars are indivisible and the short-term outcome will affect the planet for centuries. -WiA "When you triangulate everything, you can't even roll downhill..." - PhilJD

      by Words In Action on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 06:50:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nonsense (0+ / 0-)

        Maybe the government, which can create money ad infinitum, can make up the difference, though it is doubtful given the quantities of money that could be involved. And maybe they would want to put their money in wind turbines, which can deliver 5 to 10 times more renewable energy per billion doloar installed cost. But they won't do that either.

        The economic benefits that come from making solar PV (which are where most of the benefits come from once the supply chain is considered) are negated when we use slave labor from China to make the parts and products. And you don't get a lot of benefits when cut rate labor is employed to install them (but that does make for lower cost installations....).

        If you are in a business, you can't afford to stay in business for long when the sale price does not come close to breaking even, let alone making a profit. That leads to closure of the facility, and no more investment in new facilities. And if the business goes belly up, no paying workers and suppliers of parts made with that supply chain, and thus their workers and investers. .

        Face it, PV is not cheap once you factor in paying for the product. And neither are a lot of energy production techniques. And burying costs (externaling) has not done us any benefits with respect to fossil fuels. Maybe we have to pay more for electricity. But unless an Uncle Sugar comes in to make up the difference between the cost to make PV and the price that it is sold at, that business is already the walking dead. And those Uncle Sugar bucks have to come from somewhere, and when that happens, maybe someone will ask how much CO2 pollutant replacement they are getting for the dollars invested, and whether there is a better way to get more CO2 pollution avoidance for the dollars spent. If that happens, the PV biz in this country is in big trouble.... And if these PVs can't be made in this country when they are installed here, maybe you might want to ask if the installation is really worth it.....

        Nb41

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