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View Diary: The end of world as we know it . . . (186 comments)

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  •  Well (5+ / 0-)

    We are a long way off from any drive to get out of the solar system.  

    On the other hand, there is no practical way to prevent at least 2 degrees warming.  Now if at four industrial agriculture becomes impossible because of climate instability, there is nearly no chance the economy will keep up. There is a marked chance civilization wil be gone within two hundred years as a result. Not to mention that a lot of life on earth will not survive.  The point of no return is already passed for many species.  So no, this is a hallucinatory vision you have here

    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

    by Mindful Nature on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:56:19 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      On your first point, probably decades, probably not centuries. Its hard to say.

      The flaw I see in your argument is that I see no reason to believe an increase of 4 degrees will make industrial agriculture infeasible. Industrial agriculture occurs at a broad range of temperatures today, and I would have to see a compelling argument that indicates otherwise to take this seriously.

      •  then you haven't looked at the data (3+ / 0-)

        on either score.  I'm curious, what conceivable drive could hit even half of light speed that can feasibly be built?

        The fact is that agriculture depends on stability.  That will not be nearly so common in future.

        You wouldn't take the argument seriously if the data bit you in the tush, I'm afraid.  I really can't be bothered.

        Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

        by Mindful Nature on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:00:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  let's put it this way (4+ / 0-)

        the impacts of a 0.8 degree increase have decreased crop yields enough to drive up food prices for basic stocks by 45% and reduced global production such that for the first time in quite a while, we have no surplus production and are feeding people now from reserves, which are at their lowest levels in quite some time.

        So, if that's .8 degress, without the climate instability that the models anticipate, what is a five times greater increase going to do?

        Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

        by Mindful Nature on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:06:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That .8 degrees you mention (0+ / 0-)

          Is since 1880. I wouldn't attribute a down agricultural year to a figure calculated over 130 years. We're producing a lot more food now than in 1880, which only adds more support to my argument - we adapt faster than the climate changes.

          •  Exxcept that we haven't (1+ / 0-)
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            climate change is quickly catching up, since of course the bulk of the warming has happened in the last two decades and is picking up pace quickly.  Maybe a 0.8 pace over 130 years is o.k., but now we're looking at another 3.2 over 90 years.  That's entirely different.  You also fail to understand that production happens because soils and infrastructure in particular places.  If the climate of nebraska moves to northern canada, that does't really help, since Nebraska's soils will still be in Nebraska.   Your notion that nothing is wrong and technology will fix everything doesn't comport well with history and it sure ignores the realities we are facing.  There's a small chance you may be correct, but are you up for gambling the fate of civilization on it?  That's very telling if the answer there is yes.

            Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

            by Mindful Nature on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 01:09:38 PM PST

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            •  Small chance as judged by whom? (0+ / 0-)

              Regarding Nebraska, Omaha is about two degrees colder than Topeka 150 miles to the South. Farming is fine in Topeka, so I'm not too concerned about the temperature change in Nebraska. Nebraska's climate isn't moving to northern Canada in 90 years, it's moving to South Dakota in 90 years... and nebraska is getting Kansas's perfectly fine climate instead.

              •  that would be (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Words In Action

                the IPCC

                Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

                by Mindful Nature on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 02:42:21 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Wow. (0+ / 0-)

                You think it's really just a matter of states swapping climates???

                The Class, Terror and Climate Wars are indivisible and the short-term outcome will affect the planet for centuries. -WiA "When you triangulate everything, you can't even roll downhill..." - PhilJD

                by Words In Action on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 09:38:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  No, mindful nature was making the (0+ / 0-)

                  Argument that Nebraskas climate was moving to northern Canada, and I was saying that's bullshit.

                  I never said that states swapping climates was all there was to global warming. I know the biggest threats are around more extreme weather, but that argument was not made.

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