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View Diary: Jay Rockefeller to retire at end of term, creating open seat in West Virginia (149 comments)

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  •  Are you kidding? (9+ / 0-)

    Seriously, is this a joke? We have a good chance of picking up a seat in Maine, and other than that, our best pickup opportunity is in Kentucky. 2014 is an awful map. Just awful.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    matthewborgard.com ~ @MatthewBorgard

    by zegota on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:48:37 AM PST

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    •  Is completely sure of something. Links to wiki. nt (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark, MRobDC, DCCyclone, geoneb

      I see what you did there.

      by GoGoGoEverton on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:49:46 AM PST

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    •  Only way we pick up Maine (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, wishingwell

      is if a teabagger beats Collins, and that's not likely in Maine. That's much more likely to happen in KY. Can you be specific about which other states we'll have a hard time defending instead of linking to Wiki?

      "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

      by kovie on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:51:46 AM PST

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    •  Awful, maybe: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Adam B

      But it should be noted that - unlike 2012 - most of the Democratic seats look to stay Democratic fairly easily. Here is my own personal list of the DNC's problem kids:

      Alaska (Mark Begich, running for re-election);
      Arkansas (Mark Pryor, running for re-election);
      Louisiana (Mary Landrieu, running for re-election);
      Montana (Max Baucus, running for re-election);
      North Carolina (Kay Hagan, running for re-election);
      South Dakota (Tim Johnson, ???); and
      W. Virginia (Jay Rockefeller; retiring).

      I'm optimistic about the Democrats' chances in most of these.

      Mark Begich is quite popular (and Alaska is becoming slowly less Republican-friendly over time).

      Mark Pryor's approval ratings are in the mid-to-low 50s (plenty for re-election, one dares to hope).

      Mary Landrieu's in trouble, and it couldn't happen to a better person IMO. She's only worth the trouble to get an extra vote in majority-matters.

      Max Baucus is still keeping a solid lead over Republican Jesus (aka "Generic Republican", someone who benefits from all of the GOP's party strength and has no scandals).

      Kay Hagan's maintaining 5-10 point leads in the polling to date, which is good for a red-tinged State like North Carolina.

      Tim Johnson is a question-mark - no-one knows if he even wants to run for another term. If he doesn't, the GOP will almost certainly pick this seat up.

      And yes, the Democrats are likely to have to write Jay Rockefeller's seat off - although the WV Dems have a surprisingly deep bench at the State level.

      •  W.Va's politics diverges from "deeply red" once (4+ / 0-)

        you get beyond the Presidential level, statewide offices can and have gone to the Democratic Party.

        Difficult hold? Absolutely no doubt.

        Write off Jay's seat? No way. Not yet and, dependent on the candidate field, perhaps not even likely.

      •  A Few Notes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, mmacdDE

        Alaska

        Agree.  Begich has 57% job approval and unless Gov Parnell challenges him, he should do well.

        Arkansas

        Pryor has great approvals 51% to 20% and his main potential opponents have declared they are not running or are running for the open Governor's seat...Rep Tim Griffin and Asa Hutchinson.

        Louisiana

        Landrieu has very good approvals at 53% and she knows how to win in LA.  She has a good brand and courts GOP crossover support in the state.  Her main potential opponent is Rep. Bill Cassidy, if he doesn't run she is in good shape.

        Montana

        Baucus is very unpopular - 35% to 54%.  But the GOP has no good challenger as 2012 defeated GOP Rep. Rehberg has declined to run against Baucus again.  Baucus already has a 3.1 million warchest which will scare off others and his seniority is his greatest strength for small state MT.

        North Carolina

        Hagan is leading all comers early.  Her likely opponent is state GOP House Speaker Thom Tillis who she leads 48% to 39%.  The best thing for Hagan is North Carolina is a pure swing state and Obama won 48% there in 2012 after winning in 2008.  In other words she has a strong base of voters near 50%.

        South Dakota

        Sen. Johnson has a strong challenger in former Gov. Mike Rounds in this pure tossup race.  If Johnson retires then look for Democrats to recruit former Rep. Stephanie Herseth to run for the seat.  She would give Rounds a good race and could possibly win.

        West Virginia

        DO NOT write it off.  Capito could lose her primary to a tea bagger and the conservative groups have already started looking for one.  And Democrats are very successful in WV and have some good potential candidates.

        Key an eye on Michigan and Iowa where Sens. Levin and Harkin might decide to retire.  Both are in their mid to late 70's.  If they do retire then these two races become pure tossups.

      •  good to know about Begich (0+ / 0-)

        I'd like to keep him.

        I don't give a shit about Landrieu.

        Baucus losing would surprise the hell out of me.

        Kay Hagan--I'd say forget it. For whatever reason, NC is trending red.  

        And SD and WV, yeah.

        So we're looking at -4, assuming Markey can pull it off in MA. That's not good. We'd have to pick one up from the Repubs.

        if necessary for years; if necessary, alone

        by SouthernLiberalinMD on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:47:59 AM PST

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        •  NC is "trending red???" (0+ / 0-)

          Based on what? Two presidential elections in a row in which the outcome was essentially a coin flip? Just because the coin landed on the red side in 2012, doesn't mean that the state is "trending red." The Research Triangle area continues its influx of northerners and academes, and the Hispanic population of the state continues to grow as well. Doesn't seem like a blatantly red-trending state as far as I can tell!

          29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

          by The Caped Composer on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 05:24:55 PM PST

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          •  er, well, also the thing about (0+ / 0-)

            losing the Governorship?

            That worries me more than the Presidential elections.

            Hey, I'd love to be wrong.

            if necessary for years; if necessary, alone

            by SouthernLiberalinMD on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:35:09 PM PST

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            •  That had more to do . . . (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SouthernLiberalinMD

              . . . with Bev Perdue's personal unpopularity than the Democratic party as a whole. NC is a swing state, Hagan is a crafty politician (remember her brilliant response to Liddy Dole's infamous "Godless" ad), so I'm pretty optimistic about being able to hang onto that seat.

              29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

              by The Caped Composer on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:11:32 PM PST

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