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View Diary: The rebirth of rural populism in Upstate New York (59 comments)

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  •  asdf (8+ / 0-)
    my own Congressional district the 23rd Congressional district in Upstate New York as a prime example of how rural populism can become instrumental in Democrats mounting opposition to Republicans. A district that has a 2 to 1 advantage of Republicans to Democrats, the Democratic candidate for Congress Nate Shinagawa only lost by 4%,
    This district has Ithaca NY right? with a progressive dem before (hinchey)? Do you know how good the turnout was in Ithaca vs rural areas?

    seems to me Reed's district should be a prime target for to strategize?

    Dems in swing districts: INSIST your republican rep incr tax on the wealthy -gerrymandering makes rep vulnerable...swing district list:

    by grrr on Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 10:24:33 AM PST

    •  Redistricted (7+ / 0-)

      Hinchey's old district went from Ithaca toward the southeast into the Catskills.  Now it starts in Ithaca and goes west along the Southern Tier.

      Regardless, no one had this race on the radar this cycle, but I think it will be on everyone's next time around.  I may even chip in a bit if I can.

      There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

      by slothlax on Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 05:02:35 PM PST

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      •  More Appalachian (1+ / 0-)
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        Hinchey's district got converted by NY's perversely  Conservative legislature into one more Appalachian. That's one of the Republican Party's core national (regional) constituencies: Appalachians and their Plains cousins.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 05:14:37 AM PST

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        •  This is true, but better I think (2+ / 0-)
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          DocGonzo, grrr

          I always thought Hinchey's old district was a disservice to Ithaca.  Now, instead of a district that stretches into some rather distinct and separate regions of New York, Ithaca belongs to a district that encompasses the southern Finger Lakes.  Which makes a lot more sense, since Ithaca is located at the southern tip of one of those lakes.  And even with this new, more Republican district, a "some dude" Democrat almost pulled an upset.

          There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

          by slothlax on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:06:06 PM PST

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          •  More NY House Seats (1+ / 0-)
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            The real problem is that New York has too few House seats (and consequently far too few Electoral College votes). NY has over 34x the people Wyoming has, but only 29x as many Representatives. That's only 85% of parity: Wyomingers have 17% more representation than we do. And so 16% more votes for president than we do.

            An extra 5 reps would help represent NY more precisely, if it weren't gerrymandered away by NYS Conservatives (of both parties).

            "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

            by DocGonzo on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 05:35:00 PM PST

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    •  District currently under Tom Reed encompasses (8+ / 0-)

      a wide rangeof voting preferences and regional economics, from Hornel and Elmira in the Southern tier to southern Monroe county near Rochester--a result  of Repub. redistricting.
      The northern end of Reed's district (the road I used to live on in Pittsford, NY, was Reed's, one road north was in Louise Slaughter's district) tends to be prosperous, middle to upper-middle class, and more liberal in the past couple of decades. It depends on institutions like Strong Hospital, University of Rochester and RIT, and a lot of export-driven small manufacturing.
      The southern portion has lots of unemployment or underemployment, farming, lumbering, and hunting. It tends to vote pretty solidly Republican.
      Consequently, any successful candidate will have to appeal to groups with very different political interests.
      Eric Massa may have gone down in ignominy but he was able to appeal to disparate groups of people because he spoke to their concerns.
      He was well versed in and outspoken about economic issues, from export and intellectual property problems to the fact that so many New Yorkers were one accident or lay-off away from personal financial disaster, given the situation at the time with health care.
      His military experience and rather blunt speaking style gave him cred with folks in the Southern Tier, particularly since James "Randy" Kuhl, the go-along-get-along conservative he defeated, was mainly known for being the 2nd-best golfer in the House of Representatives.
      Massa also ran tireless campaigns--lots of boots, his own included, on the ground.
      So, that's a long way of saying that whoever wants to defeat Reed will, at the very least, have to be well-versed in the wide variety of economic issues and other concerns that affect people in the district. He or she will have to understand the dynamics of a lot of very different communities. Those concerns will have to be carefully identified.
      I didn't see that happen with the Democratic candidate in 2010, and I wasn't living there in 2012, but Reed ought be vulnerable--he was a loyal supporter of the Ryan plan to privatize Social Security, and is a huge yes-man for the most extreme GOP policies.

      •  Sorry, I shouldn't write late at night--Reed was (1+ / 0-)
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        an enthusiastic supporter of Ryan's plan to privitize/voucherize health care. His major justification for the Ryan plan was the standard "we have to destroy Medicare to save it," as well as the insulting, divisive, and infuriating advice that his older constituents shouldn't worry--the changes wouldn't affect them.

        •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

          did his dem opponent highlight this?

          Dems in swing districts: INSIST your republican rep incr tax on the wealthy -gerrymandering makes rep vulnerable...swing district list:

          by grrr on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:27:03 AM PST

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