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View Diary: How the 2012 presidential results informs the 2014 House target list (31 comments)

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  •  A few points (2+ / 0-)
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    Andrew F Cockburn, Sychotic1

    1. Rahall's district is actually the most Democratic in the state down ballot at D+4.  Local Dems who don't support cap and trade do very all in the unionized coal counties where Obama cratered.  Rahall's drop had more to do with the fact that he voted for the stimulus, Obamacare, Pelosi, etc and he would lose were he to run statewide with that record.  Someone more conservative could hold the seat, but Rahall is as liberal as he could possibly be in that district.

    2. In the California Central Valley, Fresno is not actually in the 21st.  More importantly, midterm turnout craters here which is why Jim Costa won so narrowly in 2010.  Valadao will get reelected next year and then destroyed in 2016.

    3. In Texas the legislature will be forced to redraw the 23rd and make it more Hispanic and Democratic.  Gallego already is a strong incumbent so it makes sense not to target him.  Excluding Murphy doesn't make much sense though, but part of this ad release seemed targeted towards getting Dems like Peteraon to retire.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:04:00 PM PST

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