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View Diary: Magic tricks, loopholes, government shutdowns and the debt ceiling (158 comments)

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  •  We would need at least a 7 point swing in our (0+ / 0-)

    direction and some state as high as 9.  With the current gerrymandering and district layouts, the likelihood of accomplishing even 2006 levels is a tough mountain to climb even if we are indeed in favorable conditions come election time.  This doesn't even consider our very usual disadvantage of turning out our base in midterms nor any political fall out that may come with the debt and/or gun proposals.

    We must GOTV like it's an election year now.

    •  Assuming a uniform swing? Yes or no? (0+ / 0-)

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 01:22:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Most likely with those predicting, yes...and your (0+ / 0-)

        thoughts, how do you see a realistic 2014 victory for the House majority?  I am curious, as most are predicting this to close to impossible although gains are quite likely.

        •  I will take that as a yes (1+ / 0-)
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          The point is, swings are rarely uniform.

          I am not predicting that we will take back the House in 2014. Rather, I am saying that it would take a wave of the same nature as 2006. I was not making (or intending to make, anyway) a quantitative point about the magnitude of the swing necessary.

          I am hardly ignorant of redistricting and what it can do. On the contrary, I am cognizant of its limitations. Tide doesn't always get the stain out, and gerrymandering doesn't always preserve the partisan balance you expect it to.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:05:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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