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View Diary: Magic tricks, loopholes, government shutdowns and the debt ceiling (158 comments)

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  •  Assuming a uniform swing? Yes or no? (0+ / 0-)

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 01:22:42 PM PST

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    •  Most likely with those predicting, yes...and your (0+ / 0-)

      thoughts, how do you see a realistic 2014 victory for the House majority?  I am curious, as most are predicting this to close to impossible although gains are quite likely.

      •  I will take that as a yes (1+ / 0-)
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        oculus

        The point is, swings are rarely uniform.

        I am not predicting that we will take back the House in 2014. Rather, I am saying that it would take a wave of the same nature as 2006. I was not making (or intending to make, anyway) a quantitative point about the magnitude of the swing necessary.

        I am hardly ignorant of redistricting and what it can do. On the contrary, I am cognizant of its limitations. Tide doesn't always get the stain out, and gerrymandering doesn't always preserve the partisan balance you expect it to.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:05:09 PM PST

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