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View Diary: Open thread for night owls: The end of labor—protecting workers from robots (140 comments)

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  •  Your faith is touching. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ten canvassers, JeffW

    However, nothing in the real world grows exponentially without limit.  Ever.

    Also, it's beside the point of my post, which is that true artificial intelligence - according to actual researchers in the field - is no nearer now than it was in the 1950's.  There is something missing besides brute processing power.  

    That "something" might be a million years of evolution.  I'm not an expert myself, so that's just a guess.

    Early to rise and early to bed Makes a man healthy, wealthy, and dead. --Not Benjamin Franklin

    by Boundegar on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 05:43:54 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  It's not power, it is about learning algorithms (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW

      Look at Siri.  All those data points (users) and all that Business Intelligence data yield crappy searches and crappy voice recognition.  I believed Dragon Naturally Speaking + 100mil users + 100TB of data + 2 years = voice recognition and Natural Language voice interface.  Nope.  Fail, fail, fail.  Every time I think AI or something that is really Judgement-related (e.g., what humans do well) will be automated, it looks like I am wrong by another 50 years.  So, yes, I agree.

      Mmmmm. Sprinkles. - H.J. Simpson.

      by ten canvassers on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 05:48:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  True experts in the field know (0+ / 0-)

      that IBM's Watson computer winning at Jeopardy against past champions was a watershed event.  Tasks that traditionally involve humans remembering, making intelligent guesses and informed estimates, even if backed up by filing through mountains of data, will be increasingly impacted Watson and its derivatives. The natural language processing capability exhibited by Watson will impact medical and health services, financial and economic analysis, help desks, legal firms and myriad other fields that now require human reasoning and judgement.  Watson was as much about great programming and clever heuristics as powerful computers.  Something like Watson was unattainable ten years previous, ten years from now its capability will be commonplace and transparently incorporated into people's everyday lives.  

      •  One specialized application... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ten canvassers

        ...does not make a generalized AI application suite. And Watson ain't small!

        Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

        by JeffW on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 07:16:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Deep blue was big, bulky, and specialized (0+ / 0-)

          when it beat Kasparov in 1997.  Today its capability fits in a desktop computer and its deep dive analytic architecture is today used for general data mining.    

          •  It's a tool, not an operative... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ten canvassers

            ...that's the state of AI at this point. The computer can't just decide to do something on its own.

            Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

            by JeffW on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:12:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fundamentally, what's needed by you then? (0+ / 0-)

              If you took a riding lawnmower, put it in drive and let it go, it sure will look like it doing stuff on its own.  If you put a collision avoidance computer in it, now it's making decisions.

              If someone took Watson and bolted on a parser and wget and a thread detector and randomly set it to answer questions in blogs, how long do you think would it take you be able to tell it's not human?

              •  I don't know... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ten canvassers
                If someone took Watson and bolted on a parser and wget and a thread detector and randomly set it to answer questions in blogs, how long do you think would it take you be able to tell it's not human?
                ...but maybe if you did that, had IBM set up a account for it on Daily Kos, and let it lurk for a while, we'd find out.

                At minimum, such a machine would have to consistently pass a Turing Test for me to consider it more than a tool.

                Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

                by JeffW on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:26:14 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  So it need not do stuff on it own, then (0+ / 0-)

                  Or if you still require that, you agree there are some pretty simple tools and a loop to make it look like it?

                  You need it to respond like a human to queries (pass the Turing test as you said).

                  I wonder what Alex Trebek thought?

                  •  It should be able to act on its own... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...to be considered a true, fully-functional AI. Otherwise, it's just a damned big database.

                    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

                    by JeffW on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:17:10 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

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