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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Martin Luther King, Jr./Inauguration Day Open Thread (272 comments)

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  •  I'll believe it when I see it (0+ / 0-)

    Steve King is a precise counterpoint to your claim that he's "way too conservative" for the district. The voters in western Iowa obviously didn't think King was too conservative for them.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 02:07:37 PM PST

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    •  No, King's 2012 performance is irrelevant (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      to the point I was trying to make.  The open question is whether we're starting to see presidential elections have a much more significant straight ticket effect than in the past (seems logical) and if that spills over to midterms (remains to be seen).

      If that's not true, then people like King and Garrett are more vulnerable in midterms since they have largely white districts and won't have Romney's coattails to save them.

      In truth I really think voters are starting to realize that it makes no sense to split your ticket federally except for very obvious cases of ideological deviation (Romney/Matheson) and that has influenced voting patterns.  We've already seen it happen for senate incumbents with not a single scandal-free incumbent losing while their party's presidential nominee simultaneously won a majority of the vote in their state.  This basically occurred last year with only Canseco losing in a Romney district that wasn't drastically changed in redistricting.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 02:25:46 PM PST

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      •  Canseco (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sawolf

        Wasn't scandal free. And the district actually was changed pretty radically between the court map and the 2006-2010 map in both El Paso and Bexar (San Antonio) and with the addition of many Republican rural counties in between.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 04:15:24 PM PST

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        •  What scandal did he have to deal with? (0+ / 0-)

          And when I say scandal I mean something like being indicted for corruption, not just having minor ethics issues.  Had Ted Stevens not been arrested a week before the 2008 election I highly doubt he would have lost.

          I also see that 30% of the district was new; I didn't think it was that high.  The other two districts where an incumbent lost while their party's nominee won were IA-03 and FL-18, both significantly changed by redistricting so those seem fairly obvious to exclude.

          Do you know if Romney won the old iteration of the 23rd?

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 04:29:49 PM PST

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          •  Old version (2+ / 0-)
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            MichaelNY, sawolf

            There's no way that Romney would have won the old version. Obama improved in much of the San Antonio portions that were removed and placed into the 20th. If it were the old district, I imagine that Obama would have done better in that district than he had in 2008.

            And yes, Canseco's mailer really did turn into a minor scandal in the district.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 04:35:33 PM PST

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          •  IA3 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY

            IA3 was also different in that the incumbent lost to another incumbent.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Jan 22, 2013 at 08:01:12 AM PST

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