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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Martin Luther King, Jr./Inauguration Day Open Thread (272 comments)

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  •  No need, mark my words McAuliffe will win (5+ / 0-)

    Even 1 on 1 vs. Cuccinelli I bet he wins by at least 5, but with Bolling looking ready to enter the race there is no realistic scenario in which McAuliffe doesn't win should that happen.

    Warner needs to stay in the senate and hold that seat down so that McDonnell or any Republican can get nowhere close.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 02:57:15 PM PST

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    •  I like our odds against Cuccinelli... (5+ / 0-)

      But I hope McAuliffe really makes a stink about this - bald political power grab and make the whole of the VA GOP own it.  Also could get Bolling to comment, and then maybe draw Cuccinelli in to offer his support for the move.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 02:58:58 PM PST

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      •  If this plan has the intended effect (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        Virginia GOP will have 2/3 majority in both houses, which means they are effectively the Governor.  

        I'm wondering if they did this because they sense Cuccinelli is going to lose and this was their only shot to ram through a redistricting plan (they're in what they call the "short session" which means they don't stay in Richmond very long this year; when they come back next year, there will be a new Gov)

    •  sawolf you are completely wrong (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, LordMike, MichaelNY

      This will be a dogfight, you are completely overstating our odds.

      If I were forced today to guess a November winner, I'd pick TMac without hesitation, but with the expectation that a 5-point margin is very close to his ceiling, not a floor.  
      Bolling makes it a little easier, yes, but not much so.

      I'm noticing some people here, not many but some, seem to have a blind spot regarding TMac's own vulnerables.  He has real liabilities in his resume and image, and frankliy Cooch is the only GOP nominee he can beat.  There are good reasons why a lot of us 4 years ago picked Deeds over TMac and Brian Moran in the primary.

      TMac is in a stronger absolute position now than then, but not by a lot.  His only major advantage is that Cooch is a kook.  But make no mistake, Cuccinelli can win, his odds are 50-50 or close to it.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 06:48:45 PM PST

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      •  There's really no way of knowing at this point but (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        I think you are underestimating Cuccinelli's vulnerabilities too though to be clear I agree that McAuliffe has some of his own.

        Maybe the 5% margin is more of a ceiling and that's really just conjecture at this point anyway, so I'll rephrase it.  I think McAuliffe's odds of winning 1 vs 1 with Cuccinelli are somewhere north of 50%, maybe around 60% as things stand today.  However if Bolling enters the race I don't see how Cuccinelli pulls out a plurality win barring a big downturn in the economy.  Every poll I've ever seen of the state shows him far, far less popular than McDonnell and he makes a poor case for continuing McDonnell's legacy.

        If it becomes clear further down the road that Cuccinelli really can win then I'll certainly be eating Crow, but I think there's a good case to be made right now that the race is Lean D.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 07:01:59 PM PST

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        •  You are overstating Cooch's vulnerabilities (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You are assuming that swing voters see Cuccinelli the same as you and I see him.

          That's not true.

          Some of them see him that way, but they are outnumbered by swing voters who have no impression of him at all and are very persuadable by the campaigns.  And it's dangerous to underestimate Cuccinelli as a campaigner, his whole career has consisted of improbable wins.

          Let's put it this way, we are less confident of TMac beating Cooch this year than Virginia Democrats were of Kaine beating Farris in the L.G. race in 2001.  We are confident, and again if I had to bet all I have on someone I'd bet on TMac......but it's a nailbiter we're expecting.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 07:41:49 PM PST

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          •  No, I'm just assuming what I see in polling (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            McAuliffe is generic Democrat who of course doesn't have any individual weakness.  Obviously McAuliffe would do worse than "Democratic Jesus."

            On the other hand, Cucinelli is a lot better known and significantly underwater at that.  He clearly is a huge step below generic R, that's something that obviously you and I would believe, but is apparently something that the voters of the state also believe.

            To me this isn't like the 2009 race where it was obvious to liberal ideologues but not the median voter that McDonnell was a hard right winger, we have ample evidence that Cuccinelli is unpopular with the electorate at large and that's what leads me to the conclusion that the race today is Lean D, though to clarify that's with Bolling's candidacy looking likely.  Without him to siphon off that tiny but crucial sliver of center-right Republicans I agree that it's definitely going to be a dogfight but that McAuliffe is still more likely than not to win.

            To give you some data that's guiding my opinion of the race, PPP's 2009 election eve poll had McDonnell at an auspicious 55/35 and Deeds at 39/45.  Their most recent poll of the state had Cuccinelli heavily underwater at 29/45 and McAuliffe at 25/26.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:06:13 PM PST

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            •  No individual weakness? (0+ / 0-)

              I think too many DKEers are forgetting the last Gubernatorial campaign in VA. McAuliffe was seen as so insincere and opportunistic that he was defeated in the primaries by Creigh Deeds. Yet you think he's a generic D?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:31:19 PM PST

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              •  No, you're misreading it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I meant in polling McAuliffe is Generic D so of course his numbers don't factor in his individual weaknesses yet.  With Cuccinelli it appears that voters already have some exposure to his weaknesses and that's readily apparent in the favorability numbers.

                I'll admit I don't have a great feel for how much drop off Democrats should expect between registered voters (as polling now would show) and likely voters on November 5th aside from it being a not-insignificant amount, but then again I don't think anyone here really knows either since 2009's turnout was such an aberration due to a variety of factors that won't be replicated exactly this year.  Still, I trust PPP in Virginia over Quinnipiac due to their longer history in the state and their nailing the election last year, but even just averaging the two it seems pretty obvious to me that Cuccinelli is a flawed candidate and that his flaws are more likely than not more damaging than McAuliffe's, so that's what makes me think that despite his potential negatives, McAuliffe's campaign can overcome them vs. Cuccinelli.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:40:36 PM PST

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            •  Polls are split, not as clear as you think (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, itskevin, MichaelNY

              PPP has Cooch underwater, but still with a lot of "no opinion" responses.

              Q-poll has him much more break-even, even slighty positive, with much higher undecideds.

              Both pollsters have had this split consistently over time in their few Virginia polls testing Cooch and TMac.

              The common thread is high undecideds, Q-poll just showing more, and in no case are Cooch's negatives hitting 50 or very close to it...I think PPP had him at 45 once, maybe their last survey, but that's as bad as it's been.

              These are not fatal numbers at all.

              Meanwhile, TMac's numbers have been happily mostly break-even with sky-high undecideds, but that just disguises his clear-cut weaknesses.  The GOP would have to do a real bad job of exploting his vulnerabilities for TMac to get through the year without seeing his negatives rise.  TMac is a guy with no public service, with high-profile partisan warfare his biggest point of notoriety, and a "job creating" business background he boasts that really is a lot closer to Romney-lite investing than genuine entrepreneurialism.  There are warts in his history in these areas that are easy to spin into a damaging story, if TMac doesn't get ahead of his own biography and successfully define himself first.

              I am rightly more nervous than you about this race.  I wouldn't be with almost anyone else.

              What I wish is that 4 years ago Deeds would've run for A.G. a second time instead of Governor.  TMac would've beaten Moran and then been crushed by McDonnell, but Deeds almost certainly would've beaten Cooch on the strength of Deeds' good showing in 2005 as something to give him a boost with voters over the obviously extreme Cooch.  As it went, we ran a no-name vs. Cooch who couldn't overcome coattails.  Of course, then Deeds would be running disastrously for Governor now, almost certainly losing big to Bill Bolling.  If TMac wins, we will have ended up much better off than that, but for now it's at the risk of having Kook as Governor.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:31:55 PM PST

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      •  I think TMac was hurt as a Clintonite... (0+ / 0-)

        there was some left over hard feelings, as Terry was pretty front and center for the Hillary campaign.  He also seemed to decide to run out of nowhere, almost like "Hell, Hillary lost, I wasn't expecting that, might as well give the Va Gov a try..."

        Not saying he would have beat McDonnell, but I think the pro-Obama, anti-Clinton feelings from enough people was probably enough to cost him the primary.  

        At least that's the feeling I got watching the race unfold as an outsider.  

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:29:06 PM PST

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        •  No, that was not a factor at all (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          I was here for the race and voted here, there was no residual feeling from the Presidential primaries.

          The primary voting was based exclusively on what voters thought of the candidates.  It was simply that TMac and Moran were obviously weak choices, and Deeds at least had a "centrist" image he might be able to leverage in purple and red areas of the state.  Plus Deeds had lost a razor-thin race to McDonnell in the '05 A.G. race, and that both gave Deeds a little name rec with primary voters plus made us feel like he's been there and done that, he knows the opponent and could learn from the previous time against him.

          No one at all cared about TMac supporting Hillary in the primaries.  That was not a factor.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 08:41:43 PM PST

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