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  •  Fuck blackberry. It's Iphone vs. Android now. (3+ / 0-)
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    justiceputnam, cosette, theboz

    An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t'Saoghail. (The truth against the world.) Is treasa tuath na tighearna. (The common people are mightier than the lords.)

    by OllieGarkey on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 11:05:25 PM PST

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    •  I remember when it was... (3+ / 0-)
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      OllieGarkey, Pluto, cosette

      ... Princess vs Pay phones!

      A Poet is at the same time a force for Solidarity and for Solitude -- Pablo Neruda / Netroots Radio podcasts of The After Show with Wink & Justice can be found on Stitcher

      by justiceputnam on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 11:17:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Android ready won (3+ / 0-)
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      justiceputnam, OllieGarkey, BachFan

      The Samsung Galaxy S3 ended up outselling the iPhone the end of last year, and Android has been outselling iPhones in general for a long time now.  The only place Apple has been winning is the Tablet market and even that is in decline for them.

      •  Let's see how long that lasts. (1+ / 0-)
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        Even Samsung is hedging it's bets on Android.

        It was inevitable that Apple sales would decline against Android because it's 2 phone models, premium priced, against more than 50 covering the market on the Android side.

        And yet, Apple still has higher phone profits and ecosystem profits and that is what they care about.

        Samsung has always been a mass-marketer and cloner (Galaxy II was it's first, really original design and it proves they are, finally, capable of originality) and they are stuck on that treadmill because their biz model is old-style, vertical industrial company so they have no choice but to continue pumping out the volume. To understand the problem, consider Sony 10 years ago verses today - that is the problem Samsung faces.

        Which also explains why they will not put all their eggs in the Android basket.

        2-3 years from now I'd expect Apple to be down maybe 2-3 points more in market share and maybe 10-15% in profit margin, but with continued, healthy growth in unit sales and revenue.

        Android, as a platform, will stall because there is really no compelling reason to use it except as a cheap OS and they will face competition from other Linux systems, notably Ubuntu which should hit the market in 2014 and without the technical issues that dog standard Android devices (verses Nexus). If Ubuntu gets traction it would be very, very interesting because it does what Android claims (but fails to do), what WN8 has crashed landed trying to do, and what Apple needs to do (in terms of iOS and OSX convergence).

        Samsung is not likely to continue their current trajectory unless they can significantly improve their eco system.

        Just as people who thought Apple owned the market were wrong, anyone thinking Samsung or Android own it is equally mistaken.

        All majors will have better displays, processors, memory, etc.  Fanboys will argue to death but the market couldn't care less about these distinctions; people buy what appeals to them in their price range at the time they by and it mainly an emotional decision based on perception of the whole and user experience.

        Operating systems and ecosystems increasingly define user experience, and the more cloud-centric it becomes, the more fragile and problematic the Android fork will get.

        Apple doesn't have an Android problem. Samsung is smart enough not to bet the company on it.

        Stay-tuned for the next season. Should be interesting. Even Sony is on the way back.

        What about my Daughter's future?

        by koNko on Tue Jan 22, 2013 at 09:20:27 AM PST

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        •  Pffft. You can KEEP your apple "ECOSYSTEM" (2+ / 0-)
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          theboz, koNko

          More like SPYBOT system if you ask ME.

          Okay, I'm failing at pseudosnark today, ignore that.

          Apple has a really cool business model, but it's a controlled environment, and not one that interests every consumer.

          I'm really interested in watching how that develops from an academic perspective, but there isn't a single apple product that interests me as a consumer. I like that I can flash the memory of a Galaxy S2 and install a new operating system. I like that I can change the way winows functions without modifying the kernel. That's the computing equivalent of open brain surgery, and I've had to do that to apple products that I've used just to get them to work the way I need them to.

          They make great machines for people who are working in certain fields, or for people who don't know very much about computers, and I think if people are willing to pay an extra thousand dollars per unit for an experience that is, for them, more convenient, then good for apple for getting the most out of their customer base.

          I'm also quite critical of their pushing of dramatic consumption rates. Apple products are not expandable. You can't upgrade them. That's a problem with most laptops, but with glued-in parts in their new ultrathins, even basic repair becomes impossible.

          While their recyclability seems to be intact, that leads me to question EPEAT ratings. I think the devices should be rated for easy self-repair as well, not just recyclability. Re-use and easy self-repair are important aspects of recyclability, and apple products really don't meet that standard at all. They don't want you to be able to repair your own computers.

          Thing is, if you can't open it and can't fix it, you don't really own it.

          Any tech savvy consumer who knows their machinery inside and out isn't interested in apple products unless, again, they work in certain industries.

          An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t'Saoghail. (The truth against the world.) Is treasa tuath na tighearna. (The common people are mightier than the lords.)

          by OllieGarkey on Tue Jan 22, 2013 at 10:07:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think everyone wants an Apple product (1+ / 0-)
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            Or any other brand for that matter. People should chose what they like and the point I was trying to make above is that I think they will continue to have multiple choices because the industry remains competitive and "dominant platforms" come and go.

            Why I think ecosystems are increasingly important is that:

            (a) Typical smartphone user is a content consumer (apps/media) and how that is delivered matters. Presently, Apple and Amazon lead by a significant margin.

            (b) As cloud computing develops, it will increasingly be mobile cloud computing and how well that is executed will also matter regardless of whether the systems is "open" or "closed".

            Pretty much any thin form factor phone, tablet or ultrabook has limited repairability and upgradability. At best, users can swap batteries or add memory (very few models) and that's about it. Smartphones are not desktops.

            Android is the "open" system that is "closed" and faces increasing problems because the way it was forked makes it hard for developers to write universal apps, and upgrades and bug patches are a mess. The reason I think Ubuntu has a chance is they have a truly open mobile platform in Beta and it seems their claim that it will not have similar problems with multiple displays, processors, etc seems to be true.

            And that is something Apple needs to worry about more than Android, which just doesn't compare in user experience. If Ubuntu gets a foothold, Android will really be in trouble.

            Let's see what happens.

            What about my Daughter's future?

            by koNko on Tue Jan 22, 2013 at 04:35:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Apple products are too difficult and buggy (0+ / 0-)

              I tried going from an HTC Incredible to an iPhone a few years ago.  I ran into way too many defects and limitations on the iPhone.  A few of the big ones were that I installed a few applications over the air, and somehow all applications that were not originally on the iPhone stopped working.  The solution was to plug the phone in, sync with iTunes, and reinstall every application over again.  I also consider it a defect that most attachments via email will not be possible to open from within the email.  Another problem is that the camera isn't able to leverage other applications.  For example, if I take a picture on an Android phone, I can immediately send that photo to Facebook, Picasa, and have an automatic sync to Dropbox.  I also like using widgets on the home screens and am surprised nothing like that is implemented on the iPhone.  Yes, there has historically been more support for releasing software on iOS, but that is changing as companies realize they shouldn't ignore a larger userbase.

              As to Ubuntu, I don't see it taking off.  I use it at home on my laptop for certain things, but I doubt they will beat Android at this time for business rather than technical reasons.  Fragmentation on Android is basically Apple marketing, since you can just build an app against the lowest version you wish to support and all higher versions can run it.  UI design on Android is no more difficult than on iOS, although you can build an app that can switch UI elements within the same version to deal with tablets.  I am not sure if that is possible on iOS.

              Cloud data storage is interesting, but is being held back by the phone companies.  Capped data plans, overloaded infrastructure, and dead zones are all in the way of people adopting it outside of highly urban areas.

              •  That's strange (0+ / 0-)

                I don't have any of the problems you mention with iOS but I did have so many bugs with my (Gingerbread) Android phone I gave it up. My iPhone 4S is particularly good at handling email attachments and photos so I'm wondering what version you were running - I have no personal experience before iP4S/iOS 5.

                Fragmentation of Android is certainly a problem if you are developing Apps for the platform and the very slow, fragmented and low adoption rate of Android upgrades is legendary - the data speaks for itself. Why you would say this is Apple marketing I don't know, but if you can link to an Apple ad making such assertions, do it because I've never seen one.

                The situation is somewhat different for Android Nexus phones where Google exercises greater control and works closer with OEMS, but then that's less "open", so is it good or bad? Philosophical question, I suppose.

                But if we look at US trends, you may note iOS market share is at an all time high and the rate of Android to iOS defections about 19%.

                Whether or not Ubuntu succeeds remains to be seen, but it does have some advantages over Android and iOS that are interesting if we suppose cloud integration becomes a major factor.

                But one thing I feel certain of: "Dominant" platforms come and go and that will continue. That's nature.

                What about my Daughter's future?

                by koNko on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 04:25:25 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Mobile development (1+ / 0-)
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                  I have dabbled in Android development both from my personal interest and as a part of my job.  There are different versions of Android, which you deal with by not using the latest and greatest API.  The majority of apps are OK being built against the Gingerbread api, although tablet apps are better off under jelly bean I suppose.  I have played around with the Touch wiz and OpenSense APIs, but it seems pointless to use them.  In any case, the custom versions of Android that manufacturers release are usually very superficial changes.  I suppose you could compare it to changing a theme.

                  The email attachment issue, for example, is not being able to open a Word document or pdf on the email.  Another thing I was unable to find, not that it is important, is a good clock app for waking me up.  The one I use now greets me and starts telling me about the weather, my meetings for the day, and the news.  I put it in snooze by flipping the phone upside down.  It seems like a basic app in this day and age but I was unable to find an iOS equivalent.

                  As to market trends, I think the U.S. has always been two years or more behind the rest of the world.  The past few years people have been making a big deal of video chat on phones, but it has been available in Asia for nearly a decade.  We are slowly beginning to see NFC become available in the U.S. but it has been in place for years elsewhere.  I would expect Apple's market share here to normalize with the global market share eventually.

                  •  Greetings from China .... (0+ / 0-)

                    Actually, Asia has been phone centric for at least 10 years for the simple reasons that:

                    A. Digital wireless infrastructure was rolled out sooner (and fiber broadband later) in many areas because it was cheaper and faster, particularly in high density urban areas. In many cases you could get a mobile account in a minute but might wait weeks or months for a landline.
                    B. Handsets were much cheaper than PCs so accessable to more people.
                    C. Asians tend to spend more time outside the home so it is more practical to have a mobile.
                    D. Very cheap texting.

                    So starting with NTT DoCoMo "iMode" in Japan, mobile centric websites and services leapfrogged PC sites in popularity.

                    Apple has actually gained market share against Android in the USA this year - now 51%. In Asia Android leads smartphones by a wide margin because of Apple's business model of carrier exclusivity and price point but is generally considered to be a higher-class "asperational" brand (at least in Japan, China, Singapore and Hong Kong if not Korea and Taiwan).

                    China is now the number 2 Apple market but the question is if they will strike a deal with China Mobile which has more than 60% of the market but is demanding a cut of the profits from aps - so far Apple is holding the line.

                    Personally, I'm somewhat system agnostic as I use OSX, Linux and Windows on PC/workstation at work and home and a Blackberry, iPhone and previously Andriod phone.

                    I think people should use what they like and I like the simplicity and also physical size of iOS/iPhone better and found Android too fidgety. Other people like to play with their desktops, have a lot of aps and widgets, etc., Abdroid is better for them. Each his own.

                    I have no problems with PDFs or office document attachments with iOS although I understand earlier versions had issues. I also really like iCloud for syncing and storage, since the change from MobileMe (sucked) this is vastly improved and works quite seamlessly.

                    I also notice Google going the way of iOS with Nexus and think this reflects lessons learned about the hardware specificity of mobile devices and their limitations and quirks verses PCS. My prediction is 3 years from now we will see erosion of Android as OEMs have other choices and drift away if they are not in the Nexus club. Both hTC and Samsung are jumping into WN7 to test those waters and I'd expect Samsung to take another stab at an OS to develop an ecosystem (they already have cloud services and media in Korea).

                    So I am very curious if Ubuntu will succeed as an open platform on mobiles, so far the Alpha demos look pretty interesting although I'm sure the demo is canned. But LTE and cloud services are pushing the entires phone market toward VoIP and the web toward HTML5 faster than originally forecast so it puts Ubuntu in an interesting position given their increasing dominance in web server Linux.

                    I think Google really made a mistake in the way they forked Linux and Java making both essentially proprietary, but then, I guess that was the plan to propagate it and then control it after luring in hardware OEMs to do the heavy lifting. Have you noticed how everything free on Goggle gets monetized, sold or killed lately? That's their M.O. as much as the walled garden is Apple's. no free lunch I guess.

                    Alarm clock app? I have my phone set to ring every 5 minutes for an hour starting at 5:30, seems to work LOL.

                    See you.

                    What about my Daughter's future?

                    by koNko on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:09:45 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

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