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View Diary: "One Million Moms" vs. a NYT must-read: "Selling a New Generation on Guns" (151 comments)

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  •  Bullshit. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PavePusher

    look at the FBI's crime victimization survey

    On average in 1987-92 about 83,000 crime victims per year used a
    firearm to defend themselves or their property.
    The lowest estimate I've seen with any kind of credible basis was around 50,000.  Every estimate based on surveys of the general population falls around 1,000,000-2,500,000.

    the purpose of the second amendment is to promote a well-regulated militia, in the same sense that the purpose of the first amendment is to promote a well-informed electorate.

    by happymisanthropy on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:21:56 PM PST

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    •  apples to oranges (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bontemps2012

      The poster above gave the number of "defensive fatalities," meaning the number who died from being shot. You're giving the number of people who used a firearm for defense. This does not have any bearing on how many fatalities there were. In many of those cases, they no doubt missed or only wounded the person they were shooting at.

      •  FBI started out using police gun uses (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chantedor, Silvia Nightshade

        mixed in with civilian defenses.

        That 83,000 figure includes all police actions. There was no separation of police and civilian defenses prior to 1993.

        (Because the NCVS collects victimization data on police officers, its estimates of the use of firearms for self-defense are likely to include police use of firearms. Questionnaire revisions introduced in January 1993 will permit separate consideration of police and civilian firearm cases.)
        -- http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/...

        Immediately afterward it was pointed out that those results conflicted with validated civilian justifiable homicide data and woundings. Police and civilian results cannot be combined usefully.

        Early FBI-supported surveys also concluded that "38%" of "crime victims" with guns attacked the offenders. Obviously, police officers attack the criminals they are facing.

        If they all hit their targets, that would produce 31,540 shootings. That's the kind of wild numbers you get from going with unfiltered, undifferentiated data.

        Imagine 38% of civilians attacking with their guns.

        Civilian defenses are a whole different ball game from police crime scene responses.

        Mean guesstimate for 83,000 gunfire defenses comes in at 2,800 fatalities, if that was civilians blasting away at armed robbers, rapists, burglars. Even that does not make allowances for the bodega experience.  

        Never, ever get in a gunfight in a bodega.

        Kill Zone.

        The real numbers go to 225-to-400 civilian-produced fatalities max (from civilian justifiable homicides back early 1990s during a crack epidemic.)
        ---------------

        Big result there: 341,000 gun thefts a year.

        That started to look like a major reason for armed burglaries. Go in there and steal guns.

        Word got out in 1987-1992 that you had expensive guns, good luck with that.

        All that's gone away today. Nobody dares steal guns. Guns are for safety !!

        O.K., fine.

        "Have you left no sense of decency, sir, at long last?" Army Attorney to Sen. McCarthy, 1954. "We have done nothing to be ashamed of. We have nothing to apologize for." NRA 12/14/2012.

        by bontemps2012 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:27:55 PM PST

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    •  That is the exact FBI number: 232. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Silvia Nightshade

      Civilian justifiable homicides for 2010 using a gun.

      Not one body more.

      The problem with "survey" and "911 transcript" approaches is that there are individuals who are habitual 911 callers. These people generate fictional events -- reporting nonexistent gun-related encounters.

      Sorry, but validation against police reports tosses out their bull.

      Also, 232 fatalities maps to no more than 10,000 - 12,000 real crime-related gun defenses. And that is a generous calculation. The actual number should be even lower because bodega robberies generate one helluva lot of bodies. Shopkeeper guns come up, there's many bullets getting fired and the range is typically well inside 5 meters.

      Home defenses ??? Guns blazing to defend the homestead? A fantasy. Sorry to rain on your parade.

      "Have you left no sense of decency, sir, at long last?" Army Attorney to Sen. McCarthy, 1954. "We have done nothing to be ashamed of. We have nothing to apologize for." NRA 12/14/2012.

      by bontemps2012 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:33:29 PM PST

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      •  so you think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bontemps2012

        no number is credible, except the one you pulled out of your ass?

        Home defenses ??? Guns blazing to defend the homestead? A fantasy. Sorry to rain on your parade.
        A study by professors James D. Wright and Peter Rossi surveyed nearly 2,000 incarcerated felons and concluded that criminals are more worried about running into armed victims than law enforcement.

        According to the Wright-Rossi survey, 34% of the felons responding from state prisons said that they had been “scared off, shot at, wounded or captured” by a victim armed with a firearm. The same percentage said they worried about being fired upon by armed victims, while 57% said they were more concerned with encountering an armed victim than encountering law enforcement officers.

        the purpose of the second amendment is to promote a well-regulated militia, in the same sense that the purpose of the first amendment is to promote a well-informed electorate.

        by happymisanthropy on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:51:42 PM PST

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        •  Buy yourself a gun. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Silvia Nightshade

          Put it under your pillow.

          Them felons do be quaking in their slippers for fear of you !!

          "Have you left no sense of decency, sir, at long last?" Army Attorney to Sen. McCarthy, 1954. "We have done nothing to be ashamed of. We have nothing to apologize for." NRA 12/14/2012.

          by bontemps2012 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:30:59 PM PST

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