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View Diary: Why Hillary Clinton will not be the first female President (200 comments)

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    also doesn't consider the environment in which previous nominations have taken place. An interesting hypothesis may be that establishment candidates have trouble in Democratic primaries when seeking to replace Republican presidents. The primary electorate, in those instances, may be a lot more volatile, as Dems feel frustrated or angry about the policies being advanced by the Republican president. With a Dem currently in office, '16 could be much different from that.

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