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View Diary: PPP - Hillary with lead in Texas (46 comments)

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  •  A Democrat has as much chance (0+ / 0-)

    of winning Texas in 2016 as I do.  And, Hillary, I'm not running.  The GOP will have a better than 50% chance of winning in 2016, demographics be damned.  By 2016, there will be a lot of Obama fatigue.  The GOP House won't let the Dems pass any meaningful legislation in this term, and we'll be four years further removed from Bush and the collapse of 2008.

    Finally, there is no obvious Dem front runner, and nobody with the Obama magic.  There have been a lot of elections since 2008 (Mass special, other specials, the recalls in WI, the WI supreme court, etc.), and Dems have won exactly one of them - the one that Obama ran in.  

    Has anyone really looked at Hillary lately?  She looks very old (and who picked out those glasses?).  In our society, older men are perceived as distinguished.  Older women are just seen as old.  It's not fair, but it's reality - at least for the voters needed to win elections.  My guess is that the Clintons are living it up right now.  Both have had recent health issues, and a presidential campaign is not exactly good for relaxation.  She had her run, and came up short.  WHen she decided to be a good soldier instead of trying to make Obama a one-termer or torpedo him in the GE in 2008, she said goodbye forever to being president.  I'm afraid she'll just have to be content to make millions on the speaking/book writing circuit.

    Joe Biden couldn't have ever been elected to a national office without Obama's help.  He won't run, and if he does, he'll lose.  Joe is a good VP, because a little Joe in small doses is kind of refreshing.  All Joe, everyday, will be way too much for voters.

    Christie can't win his home state (or can he???).  Nobody has been elected without winning their home state in a century or more.  Rubio could win FL, but I'm not sure he's ready for prime time.  I think he'd crack under the pressure of a campaign.  That said, though,...George W. Bush stood up quite well to the campaign.  Who'd have thought?  Maybe Jeb?  He'd certainly be a charismatic candidate that the GOP could rally around, and he has very little baggage other than his name.  But, while 8 years is long enough from Bush to elect a republican, it may not be long enough to elect a republican named "Bush".

    2016 might be the day for someone we haven't even thought of yet.

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