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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/5 (380 comments)

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  •  I'd put it more detailed (7+ / 0-)

    King runs, but not Latham: Likely Democrat
    King and Latham run, King wins: Safe Democrat
    King and Latham run, Latham wins: Tilt Democrat
    Latham runs, but not King: Tossup

    The reason for the middle rankings has to to with base turnout and consolidation.

    If Latham loses, I'd imagine that a fair number of moderates would be pissed of enough in their migration to Braley that it pushes the likely win up to safe.

    If King loses, I can imagine Latham having turnout issues in the hardcore base because they're pissed that Latham won and will sit on their hands in protest, making the difference between a tossup and being just a very slight underdog.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 11:02:15 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  looks about right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      assuming that Braley or Vilsack wins the Dem primary. I think either of them v. King would be close to safe D even if Latham doesn't run.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 11:11:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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