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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/5 (380 comments)

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  •  CA (4+ / 0-)

    The Dems would have to move fast if the GOP had a good chance to get back into power, but what happened in 2012 wasn't the result of any one-time, nonrecurring factors. It was a function of the state's long-term demographic creep amplified by the switch from an incumbent protection map to a commission-drawn map.

    At this point, CA is basically MD with the initiative. Both states have some very red areas, but most of the people are in very blue areas.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 01:39:42 PM PST

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    •  So Cali will keep the super majorities (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      going forward?

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 01:47:27 PM PST

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      •  Well the senate yes (6+ / 0-)

        The GOP needs to gain 3 seats crawl back into 1/3 postition. Right now I can't see them gaining anymore than 1 seat for the 2014 cycle. So they'd have to wait for 2016 and even then the map won't look that rosy. They'd have to start winning seats where Democrats sport good registration numbers

        The Assembly is a different story depending on how things go the GOP could win the 2 seats and get out of the superminority status. But at the same time the Dems could expand their margins. It really could come down to turnout.

        Potential Dem targets:
        AD-76 - Rocky J. Chavez (R), Obama 49.9%, Brown 43.0%
        We didn't even bother fielding a candidate here.

        AD-77 - Brian Maienschein (R), Margin of victory: 60.1%-39.9%, Obama 49.2%, Brown 41.3%
        Dems didn't contest this seat either.

        AD-60 - Eric Linder (R), Margin of victory: 51.8%-48.2%, Obama 52.6%, Brown 47.6%

        AD-44 - Jeff Gorell (R), Margin of victory: 52.9%-47.1%, Obama 53.5%, Brown 47.3%

        AD-40 - Mike Morrell (R), Margin of victory: 50.4%-49.6%, Obama 54.3%, Brown 50.5%

        Potential GOP targets:
        AD-36 - Steve Fox (D), Margin of victory: 50.1%-49.9%, Obama 50.2%, Brown 45.3%

        AD-65 - Sharon Quirk-Silva (D), Margin of victory: 52.0%-48.0%, Obama 53.2%, Brown 45.5%

        AD-32 - Rudy Salas (D), Margin of victory: 52.9%-47.1%, Obama 57.3%, Brown 54.4%

        AD-8 - Ken Cooley (D), Margin of victory: 54.3%-45.7%, Obama 53.1%, Brown 53.8%

        (Hat tip RRH:Left Coast Libertarian: for the numbers)

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 02:23:06 PM PST

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      •  probably (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        The GOP may be able to flip 2 net seats in the assembly in 2014, with the best targets AD36 in northern LA county that Dems won by 0.2, AD32 in the Bakersfield area (5.8) where Dem turnout usually tanks in midterms, and AD65 in Orange county (4.0). They also have to hold AD40 (GOP won by 0.8) and AD60 (3.6), but that should normally be easier in a midterm. That said, they would probably lose all but maybe 60 in 2016, as all those areas are trending blue.

        GOP turnout may be down more than usual in 2014, as for the first time in probably 100 years the governor's race looks completely hopeless for them. (1978 and 1998 turned out to be Dem blowouts, but they seemed like they would be competitive at the time.)

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 02:38:03 PM PST

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