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View Diary: For electric power generation, the end of fossil fuel is in sight (215 comments)

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  •  Blueslide - None of that is happening soon (1+ / 0-)
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    nextstep

    and if manufacturing returns, it's not returning to California.

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 05:46:37 PM PST

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    •  Diary is a bit misleading (3+ / 0-)
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      VClib, ozsea1, Sandino

      Study

      http://www.ceoe.udel.edu/...

      We modeled wind, solar, and
      storage to meet demand for 1/5 of
      the USA electric grid.
      20% is about 100 gigs. Diary says 99.9% of 500 gigs. Statistically theres little difference, but in practical terms 99% requires a new grid and massive storage build out.

      According to (IIRC) National academy of sciences we dont need storage or grid work to get 20% from renewables. After 20% yes, storage systems and long distance HVDC systems are required, more and more as we pass 50% and then 80%.

      Another quote from study:

      Least-cost combinations have excess
      generation (3x load), thus require
      less storage.
      3x is an old number
      DOE has assumed that 3x number for years, so long in fact we're starting to see efficiency increases that may make the 3x number obsolete.

      And then the diary pushes a link to Nat gas peakers...... Not pumped hydro storage, which we already have 25 somethingish gigs of in this country. And the Hydro Industry says they can reach 25% of national demand, about 125 gigs.... IIRC.

      From the study:

      During times of excess renewable generation, we first
      fill storage, then use remaining excess electricity to displace natural
      gas.
      Seems author would first use Nat gas peakers......

      FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:05:29 PM PST

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      •  I didn't read it the same way...I think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sandino

        The 1/5 of the national grid referenced might be the 14 state area they modeled and they can meet 99.9% of the needs of that area with wind and solar.

        That area is densely populated. It may be more difficult in other areas. Perhaps more distributed power (rooftop solar?) would be appropriate in some instances.

        Others have simply gotten old. I prefer to think I've been tempered by time.

        by Just Bob on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:05:28 PM PST

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      •  That refers to using excess electricity to (0+ / 0-)
        During times of excess renewable generation, we first fill storage, then use remaining excess electricity to displace natural gas.
        displace natural gas (and oil) as home heating.  IOW, to pursuade people with gas and oil furnaces to use a super-cheap oversupply of electricity instead of running their furnaces in the wintertime, because the study revealed that there would be a consistent excess of wind energy in winter.  If there happened to be a fluke temporary shortage of wind some cold day, people could run their furnaces just as they do now.  That sentance does not refer to natural gas electrical peaker plants.  

        Renewable energy brings national global security.     

        by Calamity Jean on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 12:25:00 AM PST

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        •  The dairy refers to nat gas peakers (0+ / 0-)

          in fact links to it.

          FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:38:22 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The diary refers to natgas generators, but (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JeffW

            that particular sentence refers to gas used for heating.  Here: http://climatecrocks.com/... is an interview with one of the authors of the study, which says:

            We’re getting lots of excess electricity, especially September, October through May.

            And lo and behold, that’s when we’re using a lot of fuels for heating. So . . . we asked the question, suppose we displaced natural gas for heating with this excess electricity?

            Renewable energy brings national global security.     

            by Calamity Jean on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 08:32:07 AM PST

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            •  While the diary links to this GE puff piece (0+ / 0-)

              http://www.technologyreview.com/...

              Look the Del study uses the words "natural gas" 33 times, in the first 2 dozen or so they are referencing displacing nat gas, I quite counting at that point.

              The quote you just provided is about displacing nat gas.... the diary inserts nat gas plants to generate electricity where renewables cant.

              Thats simply not the same. And I find no evidence the authors of the Del study support more nat gas peakers.

              FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

              by Roger Fox on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 10:56:09 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

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