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View Diary: 2016 can be Hillary's (641 comments)

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  •  Answer your own question. (17+ / 0-)

    Who else is walking through that door?

    We're pretty sure Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo and Martin O'Malley are running. Maybe Hickenlooper. Maybe Schweitzer. Maybe Deval Patrick, or Kirsten Gillibrand. Maybe some out-of-nowhere types like Jack Markell or Peter Shumlin (or hell, Terry McAuliffe probably sees the White House in his future).

    Are any of those people obviously more progressive than HRC? Not that I can see.

    Assuming that Sherrod Brown or Elizabeth Warren---the two most reasonably situated progressive heroes to mount a presidential campaign---don't run, who else is going to run to the left of HRC?

    Of course, I've been on the Clinton train since '07. But I'd be willing to back a more progressive candidate who has a shot at victory; thing is, like in '07, I don't necessarily see one.

    Contributing editor at Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, member of three-time NN pub quiz champion Sea Org.

    by Arjun Jaikumar on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:20:19 PM PST

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    •  No one is "obviously" more progressive. (11+ / 0-)

      I don't disagree there.  I do think O'Malley likely is more progressive, and I think anyone who'd try to run against Clinton would have to try to position him- or herself to Clinton's left to have any chance.

      •  I think that's fair (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Adam B, oysterface, mconvente, cpresley

        I don't necessarily agree on O'Malley, but I don't disagree either; it's often difficult to gauge where a governor stands on national/international issues until s/he actually starts running.

        But you're quite right that no one is going to have the slightest chance of beating HRC in a Dem primary without running to her left.

        Actually let's think about this. To beat her, you'd have to:

        - Recreate Obama's coalition; lock down African-Americans, get substantial majorities of young voters, first-time voters, wealthier urban and suburban whites (particularly among men), or,

        - Cut into Clinton's base substantially---women, Hispanics, gays, blue-collar whites.

        To me, that seems really tough for any of the current candidates from three years out, but not impossible.

        Contributing editor at Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, member of three-time NN pub quiz champion Sea Org.

        by Arjun Jaikumar on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:19:56 PM PST

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        •  You forgot step one (8+ / 0-)

          1.  Raise money.  

          And I don't know, frankly, how any of them do it until Clinton absopositively pulls out of the race, except for Biden. To be sure, some potential candidates already have federal accounts, but most don't.

          I think it has to be a generational race, but I think the past five years have shown you can't out-hustle Clinton.  

          I'm just flummoxed to think of an example of a party which had as big of an heir apparent nominee as Clinton is for 2016 -- W, 2000, I guess, but this is even more than that.

        •  To beat Hillary if she runs (0+ / 0-)

          would destroy the Democratic Party and Republicans would win in 2016.

          If Hillary runs she will be our nominee or we'll self destruct through our internal civil war. Period. Full stop.

          "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

          by Andrew C White on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:57:02 PM PST

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        •  Running to her left? (0+ / 0-)

          You honestly think someone could run to her left in the primaries and win the nomination?

          Maybe here on Daily Kos.

          Shop Liberally this holiday season at Kos Katalog

          by JamieG from Md on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 01:05:13 AM PST

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          •  Well, I'm quite sure (0+ / 0-)

            that no one could win the nomination running to her right.

            What's the pitch to Democratic primary voters? "Vote for me instead of the most popular person in the party because I'm more conservative than she is?"

            Contributing editor at Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, member of three-time NN pub quiz champion Sea Org.

            by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 08:34:27 AM PST

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        •  No other person on the planet (0+ / 0-)

          could have beaten Hillary in 2008.  Because, nobody other than Obama could have gotten 90% of the black vote in a Dem primary.  That was the ONLY reason Obama beat her.  Obama killed her in the south, piling up huge margins in delegates.  Hillary won almost all of the states with smaller black populations, and all of the big states - but not by a big enough margin to offset Obama's wins in the south.

          I agree with Kos and others, if Hillary runs, I don't see anybody in the Dem party stopping her.  But, while she has generically favorable ratings, she is VERY polarizing in a campaign (as exemplified in these blog comments), and has a lot of old wounds to reopen.  A good, likeable, GOP candidate would have a chance to beat her.  With the 1990's economy behind him, nobody should have beaten Gore,...but GWB played him to a tie, and won in OT.

          Anything can happen.  It won't be 2008, and the economy won't be literally falling down around a GOP president's feet, either.

    •  It's the old story (6+ / 0-)

      The least-offensive candidate, warts and all.

      I will vote for Candidate Warren or Franken or Brown. In the primaries. If they win, I'll vote for them in the general election.

      But as kos sez, it's probably going to be President Rodham-Clinton. We could do MUCH MUCH worse. And all the complaints I hear are mostly about military and foreign policy matters...since when did those EVER sway a voter more than domestic and economic policy matters? WW II? Eh.

      "I feel a lot safer already."--Emil Sitka

      by DaddyO on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:36:45 PM PST

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    •  My thoughts exactly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MidwestTreeHugger, oysterface

      I posted a very similar diary to this here.

      "It is, it seems, politically impossible to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to prove my case -- except in war conditions."--JM Keynes, 1940

      by randomfacts on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:37:23 PM PST

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    •  none of them are running (0+ / 0-)

      if Hillary runs... except for a couple that might run briefly so as to raise their name recognition and get in the running for VP. Gillibrand will certainly NOT run if Hillary runs. Neither will any of the several other quality women candidates in the Democratic party.

      If on the other hand Hillary does not run then you will see quite an interesting primary amongst the women let alone the more traditional male candidates and I hope to Gawd that we Democrats have sense enough to nominate one of the many fine women candidates we'll have to chose from.

      "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

      by Andrew C White on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:55:01 PM PST

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