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View Diary: Doing the Math: California Poised to Delay Climate Action for 80 Years. (46 comments)

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  •  Well we better bloody well figure it out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RLMiller, Calamity Jean

    However, California's on tap to pass the 50% non fossil mark soon.  This claim gets made that it can't be done, but there's never any credible evidence why building renewables and going electric, like we are actually doing right now, is some how magically impossible.  

    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

    by Mindful Nature on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 02:36:12 PM PST

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    •  And you can't see how misleading that is? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BusyinCA, RLMiller

      It doesn't include transportation, where most oil is used.

      What's the number if you include transportation and manufacturing? You don't know and you don't want to know.

      It rubs the loofah on its skin or else it gets the falafel again.

      by Fishgrease on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 04:15:18 PM PST

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      •  There are these great gadgets (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RLMiller

        They're called electric cars.  They cost one third as much to run as fossil fuel cars.  As prices come down as they have been doing, and as electricity prices continue to drop, obviously this transition will gain substantial ground.

        Now, California weighs in at 360 billion VMT, which even at the realatively modest 3 mi/kwh (what the LEAF gets now, the Tesla Model S tops 4 mi/ kwh) works out to an energy demand of 120 billion kwh or 120 TWh ( if I've gotten my exponents right. )    [ Note, starting with Californias gasoline and diesel comsumption gets us roughly a similar number.  Using the 33.7 kwh eq/ gallon gets us to around 70 billion kwh or 70 TWh given California's consumption of 20 billion gallons annually. So lets ball park this total demand at 100 billion kwh. Now this back of the envelope is only to get a sense of the scale as it ignores reductions in VMT from planning (SB 375, etc), improvements in efficiency, etc.)
        California generates right now a total of 200 TWh annually.  Of that 40% is nuclear plus renewables, or 80 TWh or roughly enough to power most of those VMT right now

        Of course that's a lot of cars and trucks to build, transmission and generation and some storage.  However, with renewables and EVs increasing by rates like 50% year on year (that's before beating grid parity which on current trends will happen here by 2015).  

        If there is the political will to do it, then we could have swapped out significant portions of the energy infrastructure within 10 years espcially if we leave fossil fuels in the ground by law which will force investment to power source that will still be cheaply available by 2025

        Still think it can't be done?  

        Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

        by Mindful Nature on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 05:33:48 PM PST

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        •  VMT = "vehicle miles travelled" (0+ / 0-)

          TWh = Tera Watt hours or quadrillion watt hours or billion kilowatt hours.
          EV= electric vehicles.
          Grid parity is roughly the price point at which renewables can be delivered at the price currently available.  IN parts of LA, distributed generation solar (panels on your house) have hit that now).

          I think that's the complete glossary

          Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

          by Mindful Nature on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 07:46:39 PM PST

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        •  You'd think that's all we'd see! (0+ / 0-)

          But no. I go to price one and it's about the same price as a new Vette. Something to do with us very nearly clearing all the reachable branches of the battery technology tree and them not wanting sued when one of those batteries decides to catch a-fire.

          Extrapolate that to 18-wheel trucks. Except you can't, because the space-weight problem folds inward on itself and your payload is reduced by 60% on flat land. Throw in a mountain or two and you're hauling 30% of the Chinese-built crap that nobody needs anyway... across the country, and then 220,000 miles later you replace those batteries or THOSE will catch afire, at a cost of about what a total decked-out all-the-bells-and-whistles diesel 18-wheeler rig costs.

          Quit pretending technology has progressed further than it has.

          Want to burn less oil? Then BURN LESS OIL.

          Stop wasting it.

          It rubs the loofah on its skin or else it gets the falafel again.

          by Fishgrease on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 09:05:23 PM PST

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          •  Stop pretending (0+ / 0-)

            It hasn't progressed at all and never will.   Want to stop burning oil?  Stop pretending its impossible without moving back into caves.  That myth serves only one interest: that of oil companies.  

            I suppose I should tackle your vaguely coherent of truck technologies next

            Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

            by Mindful Nature on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 09:34:05 PM PST

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          •  They have clever gadgets for that too (0+ / 0-)

            For moving intercity freight. They call these trains

            They also have 60,000 pound payload electric trucks that cost 1/9 th as much to operate. Not too far from a semi, actually.  Then there are these guys

            Maybe is should admonish you to stop saying things are impossible when people are already doing them.  

            Again, the issue isn't that it can't be done, its that it isn't because of a combination of economic power from entrenched players and the recent arrival of technologies that haven't had time to penetrate.   However the idea that it cannot be done is taking a real beating these days

            Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

            by Mindful Nature on Thu Feb 07, 2013 at 09:42:26 PM PST

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          •  Can't be done, huh? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RLMiller

            Really?  Someone forgot to tell the Aussies.  So how fast a transition will we see now that renewables are cheaper?  The electricity sectors a ton of the problem

            Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

            by Mindful Nature on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 06:38:44 AM PST

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            •  Once again you're leaving out transportation (0+ / 0-)

              Also you're letting this get personal, which is where I exit the conversation.

              It rubs the loofah on its skin or else it gets the falafel again.

              by Fishgrease on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 04:10:29 PM PST

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              •  You didn't seem to read my rather lengthy (0+ / 0-)

                discussion of transportation, including the "you'll never be able to build trucks" argument, which is rebutted by the fact that people are already building them

                It is striking to me just how much news of the "this is happening and is faster than anticipated" that I have little patience for the doomsaying that has little relationship to the actual evidence at hand.  

                Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

                by Mindful Nature on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 04:34:35 PM PST

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                •  Oh Jeeez (0+ / 0-)
                  "you'll never be able to build trucks"
                  You'll never be able to find where I wrote that.

                  But for now, find me an implementation of heavy road  transport that isn't diesel. I mean without getting emotional.

                  YOU quoted a 50% number that didn't include transportation. That's misleading when commenting in a diary about oil production. It's obfuscation.

                  It rubs the loofah on its skin or else it gets the falafel again.

                  by Fishgrease on Sat Feb 09, 2013 at 12:44:32 PM PST

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                  •  Read, friend (0+ / 0-)

                    cold hard numbers.  Pretty rich for you to accuse me of being emotional.

                    I quoted you a very detailed break down of California's TRANSPORTATION budget.  YOu ignored it completely.

                    I also put forward both the options of trains, which can be also run with electric motors, and 60,000 pound payload electric trucks.  THose are the facts that you completely and utterly ignored. They are the cold, hard, rational facts that utterly undercut your argument (for which you have presented zero data).

                    Don't deign to lecture me about being ungrounded in reality.

                    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

                    by Mindful Nature on Sat Feb 09, 2013 at 04:17:08 PM PST

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                  •  That would be (0+ / 0-)

                    Here:

                    Never has been true and there's no way you'll get it done.
                    and here:
                    Extrapolate that to 18-wheel trucks. Except you can't, because the space-weight problem folds inward on itself and your payload is reduced by 60% on flat land.
                    to which I showed you people who are building right now truck that carry, not 40% payload, but 75% of the payload.  In otherwords, plenty enough.  You tried to rebut that with stories of batteries catching fire, ignoring what diesel fuel does when exposed to a spark.

                    You also said this:

                    What's the number if you include transportation and manufacturing? You don't know and you don't want to know.
                    to which I replied this:

                    Now, California weighs in at 360 billion VMT, which even at the realatively modest 3 mi/kwh (what the LEAF gets now, the Tesla Model S tops 4 mi/ kwh) works out to an energy demand of 120 billion kwh or 120 TWh ( if I've gotten my exponents right. )    [ Note, starting with Californias gasoline and diesel comsumption gets us roughly a similar number.  Using the 33.7 kwh eq/ gallon gets us to around 70 billion kwh or 70 TWh given California's consumption of 20 billion gallons annually. So lets ball park this total demand at 100 billion kwh. Now this back of the envelope is only to get a sense of the scale as it ignores reductions in VMT from planning (SB 375, etc), improvements in efficiency, etc.)
                    California generates right now a total of 200 TWh annually.  Of that 40% is nuclear plus renewables, or 80 TWh or roughly enough to power most of those VMT right now

                    In otherwords, I have presented actual data and real facts.  You've presented zero evidence for your positions that these things cannot be done.

                    And let's review this little gem

                    What's the number if you include transportation and manufacturing? You don't know and you don't want to know.
                    I'm sorry, who's getting personal and emotional here?

                    I've consistently refuting your arguments with data.  Please recognize you're wrong on these points and revise your position accordingly.  THanks.

                    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

                    by Mindful Nature on Sat Feb 09, 2013 at 04:57:43 PM PST

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        •  For reference (0+ / 0-)

          I finally found data on a new big solar plant going up now in California.   Ivanpah has a nameplate capacity of 394 MW and is expected to produce (as in, they've signed contracts to deliver) a little over 1 TWh by itself. Brightsoyrce is building two others in California.  That's just one company and one kind of plant

          Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

          by Mindful Nature on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 09:06:58 AM PST

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